Monday, March 24, 2008

The Swing Continues

The current market upswing continued with a big move today after a better than expected Existing Home Sales report, a better than expected bid for BSC, and a move to increase purchases of agency mortgage backed securities by the Federal Housing Finance Board. Here is a summary of what might happen tomorrow or this week on the major indexes:

Dow may make a run to resistance at 12750
SPX may make a run to resistance at 1375
Nasdaq may make a run to resistance in the 2375-2400 area
Russell may make a run to resistance in the 720 area

I am looking at the end-of-day pullback today, and any early softness tomorrow morning, as an opportunity to take a shot with the DIA, SPY, Q's, and IWM for a swing up to those resistance areas. The swing may not last much longer, so I will go in-the-money with my calls. By the way, I am doing everything on May calls now.

Bullish Watch from today (besides my list from the weekend):
TIF broke out, FSLR and ADBE are ramping up for a possible breakout, WAG broke out, GILD broke out, and UPS broke out.

Bearish Watch (besides my list from the weekend):
Some insurance and other financial stocks had Shooting Stars today: LNC, and AIG
CAH has a Hanging Man forming, and MCK confirmed a rollover.

A lot of stocks made it to resistance and pulled back end-of-day. That's what happens when the market has a more frenetic day like today - everyone tries to get it done right now! We just gapped and ran today. As it is, if the Energies and Commodities (including Gold) will bounce one more day tomorrow, and the Financials, Tech, and Retail play along a bit, then we might have another up day. I will play for that tomorrow, but I will look to lock down some profits by the end of the day ahead of Wednesday's Durable Orders and Oil Inventory Report. I'm not switching out of my Neutral stance until we clear 12750 on the Dow. So for now, I'm still playing my quicker Day Swings and keeping the trades to 1-3 days.

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