IBM held up its end of the bargain, but PFE and the Philly Fed Survey reported really ugly numbers. NUE would appear to have given the Steel stocks a little tailwind, but that's being offset by the drop in RS after earnings.
It looks mixed out there, so I liquidated everything.
I don't like the Steel stocks reaction to the earnings, even with NUE propping things a bit. I stopped AKS for a 40 cent loss and STLD for a 38 cent loss. I also locked and walked on MEE, which finished out as an 87 cent, or 21% profit. I also took my profits on DIA, which was 38 cents, and on SPY, which was 34 cents. The gains today nullified the two small losses, and not only kept me close to break-even on the day, but preserved all my profits from the past several days. That is the essence of risk management.
Speaking of risk. The markets look too squishy right now. It may very well be that we continue going up on the short-term, so I will still look at some potential call plays after this mid-morning consolidation. But I need to see something pretty solid to go wading back in ahead of the weekend. This is typical Earnings Season. In fact, it's not quite as volatile, yet, as I expected. We are still in a Chop and Slop market until we're not, so I still don't have a problem liquidating a trade intra-day to three days. We just aren't in a 3-7 day swing market yet.
The Naz is forming a Head and Shoulders top on the 30m charts right now, which means we may actually head back for a test of the gap.
The Naz fought off the Head and Shoulders intra-day. Stocks that may still be on the move are GS, AIG, MET, SUN, and perhaps IR and CAT. ICE had a nice follow-through today, but it's moved a little too far for me now.
Sighhhh.....I know, I know, not much happening today, but I couldn't resist picking up a couple of little nibblers on GS and AIG, which both look like they can swing a little more. The markets seem to be holding up, sellers aren't winning the day. There is still some resilience in the current upswing.
The DIA and SPY are in Ascending Triangles intra-day, so I bought calls just before the (potential) breakout. They are trying to push through as I write this.
I picked up calls on DIA, SPY, GS, AIG, and MEE. I will look to sell into any pop in the morning. I would normally hold a little, and maybe even look for some more if the markets break out, but I'm going on vacation Saturday to the following Saturday, and I don't want to have anything on the books while I'm gone and can't watch it.
GOOG beat earnings and is up 17% after-hours. SNDK added to the Nasdaq's tailwind by beating earnings and rising 5% after-hours. COF didn't mess up earnings so far, and is holding up after-hours. Tomorrow morning, before the open, if CAT, HON, and C, along with SLB, don't mess up too badly, or even come out positive, we could gap up right into intermediate-term resistance areas. The Q's are set to gap right to resistance in the morning. I will sell into the gap. Once again, I would normally keep half my positions in case we do break out, and even add more if we do. But I'm going on vacation, so I'll just exit if we gap open. If the earnings come in decent to good before the open, look for a gap up in the morning. It will be interesting to see if the market can break out tomorrow, or if it will fade into the close. We may be close to a key tipping point in the markets.
We shall see what tomorrow brings.....
Thursday, April 17, 2008
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No kiddin. I can't find much. I have LVS puts and a couple DE calls.
ReplyDeleteLike you say, with the stock market if you dont like what you see you can get out in the click of a mouse!
ReplyDeleteYeah, you two are right on. I was clicking out of all my stuff, and I'm not clicking in to anything new yet.
ReplyDeleteI went ahead and sold my LVS puts for a 60 cent gain. Too nervous to let it ride. Took my money and ran. Also dumped the DE calls for a small loss.
ReplyDeleteHi Dwight,
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think of MER's bullish engulfing candle so far today? Is $50 a reasonable target with a first profit zone around $47.50 and a stop below today's low?
Dwight,
ReplyDeleteI'm still hanging on to my trades. My finger was too sore from yeaterday so I figured I would give my finger a rest. I hope I don't shoot myself in the foot (with my sore finger), but I think I'm going to see what tomorrow brings. Of course with you being on vacation next week, it will give me some time to heal-hopefully just from a sore finger and not a broken account.
I'm going to put my nose to the books next week again. Talk to you tonite.
Thanks,
Gary
For the intraday trades, do you use the 5, 15, or 60min for entry and exit signals?
ReplyDeleteSung
dwight,i finaly found your trading
ReplyDeletepage.this is more than i could of imaged.i highly appreciate it.keep
up the hard wook.you cant go on vacation now that i found you!
thanks gary
When wil you be back on the v.c. or what days will you miss? Will you be updating the family page while you are away?
ReplyDeleteDwight, so you are human afterall. Even a guru needs R&R to recharge. We will miss you. Let us know when you will resume. With you gone, I'll take a break from trading and hit the books, unless ofcourse the Dow breaks 12750 then I will be trigger happy. Hope you and your wife have a great vacation.
ReplyDeleteBob: MER Bullish Engulfing looks good, I chose GS, but MER is fine as well.
ReplyDeleteGary: you're fine with your trades right now, the markets are holding up and even trying to push a little. It smells like the swing is still in play a little.
Sung: I look at any intra-day time frames. I was just looking at the 15m charts on the DIA and SPY for an Ascending Triangle.
Dwight,
ReplyDeleteI didn't get a chance to inquire today, but I just noticed that my April 120/125 Bear Call on DECK is looking a little bleak-any suggestions?
Thanks,
Gary
Thanks for all your help and encouragement Dwight. Enjoy vacation. I took my (then 11 yr) son through that whole Vancouver area as a sidetrip from a hockey tournament...beautiful!
ReplyDeleteGary: any intra-day dip below 120, if it happens, unwind the short side. You should only be buying back a little time at that point. If it doesn't come back, which it might not, you may have to close it just before the bell.
ReplyDelete