Watchlist Saturday

I'm back. I need some time to go through the market week, do some charting, and get caught up on what's been happening. I will go through 400 or so charts to get a feel for things, and then I'll put together my watchlist for the week. It looks like you have been talking to each other this week, which was a good way to use the site to support one another.

I went through your comments and trades pretty much line by line. Bob gets my "A" grade for getting on the right side of several Bull Flags in a market that is still pushing up Neutral to Bullish, and even possibly transitioning to full Intermediate Term Bullish. By the way, for those of you that got tossed around on CAT and CMI, they're both doing about the same thing, and that thing is bullish. In fact, the entire industry, along with some related areas are doing the same thing: CAT, CMI, DE, JOYG, and PH, along with X (metal fabrication). Those are some very nice players right now. Also, you can't really draw up Bull Flag Bounce much clearer than ANR. Some of you got tossed around playing those too tight this week. The reason you got tossed around is your entries weren't clean. Those stocks were a real cherry-pickers delight this week. Some of them are still playable Monday, so I'll be looking at those and others. I will get to the rest of the watchlist later.

Here is my watchlist for the upcoming week. I have included a market posture as well. I indicate stocks and sectors that are either beginning to go intermediate term (IT) bullish or bearish in parenthesis, or are a little tapped out short term. I indicate stocks that are IT bullish or bearish in a normal font. And I indicate stocks or sectors I'm most interested in because of where they are short term (ST) in a bold font. The bolded stocks are closer to buy signals, or they are extremely compelling because they could be high probability setups soon. The regular font stocks are worth keeping an eye on, and the stocks in parenthesis are something I will watch, but probably not play.

Dow: IT Bullish and ST Bullish. The Dow is flagging above IT support at 12,750. A break below 12,750 would change my posture to IT Neutral.

SPX: IT Bullish and ST Bullish. The SPX is rounding its way up the right side of the 4 month base. A break below 1,370-1,375 would change my posture to IT Neutral.

Naz: IT Bullish and ST Bullish. The Naz is rounding its way up the right side of the 4 month base. A break below the bullish gap around 2,350-2,361 would change my posture to IT Neutral.

We have a heavy week of Economic Reports, especially Thursday and Friday. Earnings continue to pile in at the usual pace, although most of the biggest names have reported. And of course we have the Fed on Tuesday/Wednesday. This is timing out for a continuation of the current upswing into Tuesday or Wednesday morning ahead of the Fed, especially if the Dow can reach 13,000-13,090, and the SPX can reach 1,425. Monday has a nice probability for being an up day, and we have a decent probability of reaching those market targets, especially if traders focus on the Fed Wednesday, and the Economic Reports on Thursday and Friday for the next catalysts. What I don't want is for traders to put their hands in their pockets and sit and spin until they get the actual reports. I want some speculation ahead of the Fed, the ISM, and the Jobs Report, so then I can stick my hands in my pockets after some nice 1-3 day swing trades.

BULLISH SECTORS/GROUPS AND STOCKS:

Steel: AKS, NUE, X
Metals/Mining: (POT), ANR, MTL, CLF, RIO, FDG, SID
Copper: FCX, (PCU)
Chemicals: (MOS), AGU, CF, PX
Energy: SWN, UPL, NFX, CHK, OXY, NE, PXP, APA, CAM, FTI, (DVN), NBL, (SII), (BHI), SU, RIG, NBR, MUR, (HES), SLB, OIH, NOV
Coal: MEE, (CNX), ACI
Railroads: CSX, UNP, BNI
Materials/Construction/Manufacturing: BUCY, (PCP), JOYG, FLR, CMI, FWLT, (DE), CAT, PH
Tech: BIDU, ADSK, (FSLR), (KLAC), AAPL, GOOG, INFY, IBM
Some Financials: AXP, GS, ICE, NYX
Some Retail: KSS, AMZN, COH, COST, NKE, WMT
Some Aerospace/Defense: BA, GR
Note: DIA and SPY, also IVGN, CHRW

BEARISH SECTORS/GROUPS AND STOCKS:

Gold: AEM, ABX, GG, GDX (nice head-fake in Gold a couple weeks ago, looks like it sold off hard again while I was gone. Now I will wait for a bounce before looking at puts.)
Some Cyclicals: WHR, MMM
Some Retail: IGT
Some Services: DST
Note: PG, PEP, ROK, MBT, CEG

I will have to ease back in to the amount of postings that I can do intra-day because I need to get caught up at work. So there will be a settling in period as I get rolling again.