Don't read too much into the open this morning. It looks like it will be fairly quiet. The market may slosh a bit, but I won't be surprised if it takes the first hour for the market to even begin to decide what it wants to do today.
8:35 am MT: The market may be tipping its hand right now. A brief rally just a moment ago was just met with a round of selling. Traders are still doing battle, so it's not over yet, but the Bears appear to have a slight edge right now.
12:45 pm MT: The market is confirming today's selling, and the Dow broke a Double Top. The Dow went through the 12,750 - 12,700 zone and immediately dumped to 12,600, which was my next target. Right now the Dow is at 12,600 and trying to hold the 50dma.
I stopped the MOS puts early in the day for a 12% loss. I scratched the LM puts early in the day at breakeven. I locked and walked on the MS puts for a 19.5% gain. I locked and walked on the RTH puts for a small 5% gain. I locked and walked on the MER puts for a 32.5% gain. I also did two intra-day put swings on the DIA and the SPY. I made an 8.5% profit on the DIA puts intra-day, and I made an 11% profit on the SPY puts intra-day.
I am also scaling out of my last put, which is FDX. I have made about 17% profit on the trade so far. I am going stock hunting right now to see what I want to do before the close.
1:00 pm MT: Here is a comment from the news on why the market sold off intra-day. "Market participants are concerned over the negative FOMC meeting minutes, with the Fed cutting its growth forecast and raising its inflation expectations. Several FOMC members said that it was unlikely that they will ease policy in the near term, even if the economy sees a contraction." Ok, seriously folks.....Is there anyone in the know universe that couldn't see that one coming?!? The Fed cut rates way too much and over-fixated on the short end of the Yield Curve, which hyper-stimulated an already inflationary Energy and Commodity area, which has now attenuated Consumer Spending, and left the Fed with no more ammo to shoot at what they shouldn't have been shooting at in the first place!!!.........Aye yi yi yaaooww! How could the entire galactic universe of all known life forms, including sensient and non-sensient beings NOT see that one coming? Sheesh, I don't know what to say anymore. Traders sold off on that news?? Well, it is what it is. My job is to just trade it and not question it......
1:20 pm MT: by the way, AAPL is headed towards the 30dma.....
1:50 pm MT: I have gone through about 200 stocks and my own watchlist, and I'm just not in the mood to do any calls or puts on anything I see. I don't feel like Cherry Picking calls right now, it doesn't look right. And I want some kind of intra-day bounce tomorrow before I potentially do another round of put trades. So I'm just sitting tight into the close.
7:30 pm MT: Market Wrap: The Dow broke a small Double Top and headed right to the 12,600 support that I posted yesterday. If the Dow doesn't hold 12,600 look for 12,300. The SPX is sitting right on the 30dma, if this area doesn't hold, look for 1,370. The Naz is probably headed for 2,430.
Here are some interesting Bearish stocks (that might not be too far into a downswing) if the market continues selling for another day or two: ADM, PNC (target 64.50), TRV (possible target of 48), STT (target 68, then 66), DIA (if today's lows don't hold, target 123), KO, AGN, KMB, STJ, ALL, and UTX. Also: VLO and SUN may roll down if the Energy sector finally pulls back.
Note: the DXD is the short Dow and it broke out of a Double Bottom with heavy volume today.
Here are some interesting Bullish stocks if the market pulls back and they hold supports: VIP, SINA, VRSN, TIF, and AAPL (right at the 30dma).
Note: LDK is very strong, even in the face of market selling.
I didn't include any Energy or Commodity stocks on the bullish watch because they look like they are just beginning to pull back. It looks like we will possibly have another couple of days of pulling back in those areas.
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
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Reversal of fortune. As the Oil Inventory report was coming out, I was prepared to stop out of all puts at a small profit or loss.
ReplyDeleteInstead I just took off 1/2 of MER and RCL at profits of 27% and 25%.
FDX and LM finally started to roll too.
Dwight,
ReplyDeleteWhat the heck happened again. Holy Cow!! These swings are killing me I don't know whether to buy on the dips or sell on them. Sorry about the trader recommendation joke on VC if you got that far. Humor keeps me sane on days like this.
Confused,
Gary
Gary: the market sold of on the FOMC minutes, which I wrote about on the post. However, I have been warning of this for days, and I have played about 8-10 put trades since Friday. So it's not that surprising to me.
ReplyDeleteDwight,
ReplyDeleteSo what are you looking at now, mostly calls since the indices are at support? I'm also in the process of scaling out and look at some possible trades for tomorrow. I don't want to be in too many trades overnight because I can't really see what's going to happen....
Joe
Dwight,
ReplyDeleteAny thoughts on LDK? Volume is impressive and it's held in the face of the selloff (so far).
Does anyone else see the DOW confirming a double top today?
ReplyDeleteJust trying to sharpen my saw...
Krystal,
ReplyDeleteYeah, I see the same. I am also seeing a negative divergence on the DOW and even more on the S&P with the macd.
If we can break through support tomorrow, I'm jumping into some puts.
Joe
Joe: I decided I would wait for tomorrow before entering anything new. I'll post a list of what I like tonight.
ReplyDeleteBob: LDK does look pretty good. I don't like buying this far into a swing, but it could still go up some more.
Krystal: the Dow did confirm a little Double Top and immediately went to and stopped at my next support target of 12,600. If we don't hold that, look for 12,270-12,300. By the way, that sharp resistance saw clipped the Dow off with a Double Shooting Star right at the 200dma.
Well...hhmmm. I got my JASO calls this morning and ended up getting stopped out for a loss. I didn't read your replies from yesterday until after the market closed today. I did however enter some USO calls today and it ended up washing with the JASO loss. I'm still holding my MER puts, in fact I added to them at closing. I also got back into some LEH puts that I sold yesterday...AAARRRGGG!! The market is being difficult again. It's treating me like it's red headed stepchild and I've had enough already. I'm about to start swingin' back. I'm a new trader (since Jan.) let's see a trend for more than a few days so I can make some moolah.
ReplyDeleteLook at cnn.com the main story says "more tough times ahead" that doesn't exactly make people want to run out to mall and buy a bunch of junk...retail will probably get hit harder in the coming weeks, Dwight is this unusual that the economy would be doing this bad during an election year? I think you called global economy inflation weeks ago...that's what popped into my head when i heard costco was starting to RATION rice.
ReplyDeleteI lost 2 trades and won 2 trades to basically break even today - just remember everyone we are going to lose money as upsetting as it is....just make sure we keep the loses SMALL!! that way it isn't difficult to make it back!! Denise
Dwight,
ReplyDeleteJust wanted to post my trades over the past few days..
ESI: +2.64 (75%)
CL: -.10 (-3%)
NYX: +1.08 (32%)
GME: -.10 (-2%)
IBN: +1.15 (35%)
MS: +.84 (32.5%)
SHLD: +1.13 (30%)
WYNN: -.90 (-17%)..took a chance
Still have small (2) positions on HIG (14%), MER (28%), and STI (10%).
Joe
Denise: the market usually performs well in an election year. But we've had a powerful 5 year Bull Market, so this consolidation is not as huge a deal as some might think. I would have preferred the Fed to leave things alone on the SHORT end of the Yield Curve in January to let the market consolidate properly, and allow the Energy and Commodity sectors to quiet down. Now we are chopping along with pretty hefty inflation in some areas.
ReplyDeleteJoe: you're doing a great job with your trading. Excellent work! You ought to post an entry and exit on here every now and then. You don't have to do it a lot, but once in a while if you feel like it. I think other people could learn from some of your trades.
Hey Gang,
ReplyDeleteI picked up some more CCJ and a few DRYS on the pull back. Dwight, you may not like my CCJ entry but I'm pretty bullish on it sitting on diagonal/horizontal support, so I'm not risking much. Sold partial positions today (CAT, GG,)while market was up and holding on to my other calls to see what happens, hopefully not too much of a continuation in the AM.
Gary
Good Morning All:
ReplyDeleteWas looking at a call on Rising Flag on SRCL. Just planning on playing a intra-day call-
Was strong yesterday.
Thanks
Robert
CANI
Dwight:
ReplyDeleteNice call on SINA- missed the early jump and will look for a pull back -up $2.00 as of 1020 am.EST.
Thanks
Robert
CANI
Robert: SINA did ping right off the 20dma like I thought it would. One note of caution, it looks good, but watch the high of today, it has become a 3 day resistance, along with two small gaps previously. If you Cherry Pick this, get it going north of today's high, or preferably, closer to 50. And don't go all in yet.
ReplyDelete