The stock market is selling down on the AIG earnings miss. In addition, Energy and Commodity stocks look like they are experiencing some selling pressure. The worst performing group this morning is not Financials, but Steel. Tech is the strongest area. The Dow is blasting down below its 20dma, the SPX is right on its 20dma as of this post, and the Naz is still well above its 20dma.
11:00 am MT: I locked down 1/3 of my ADM puts from two days ago for a 42% gain. I am still riding the balance of my CL puts. I also nibbled in on APA and MUR puts.
1:00 pm MT: I locked down a little more of the CL puts, I am averaging a 42% gain on the trade so far.
7:30 pm MT: I really don't have a lot to say about today. Some Energy and Commodity stocks dropped, while a few went up. Oil closed at a new record high again, this time it hit $125.88 per barrel. I'm still expecting a couple of day drop in Energy and Commodity stocks in general, especially since a number of those stocks are making equal highs, or lower highs, despite the strength in those sectors. We may still be headed towards a little bit of intermediate term consolidation in Energy and Commodities, which would be more reflective of a slowing consumer, than a build in supply. So I am still bullish long term in Energy, and some Commodities.
The Dow closed below the 20dma, the SPX closed just above the 20dma, and the Naz is still Bull Flagging well above the 20dma. Right now it looks like Large Cap Tech and Mid Cap stocks (mainly Energy and Commodity stocks) are the strongest stocks in the market. Mega Cap (Dow) stocks, certain areas of Discretionary Spending (Resorts, Casinos, Leisure, etc.), and a lot of Retail and Financials are the weaker to weakest areas of the stock market.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Hi Dwight,
ReplyDeleteDid I enter ADM too late? After it bounced yesterday I decided to wait for it to pierce the uptrend line starting 3/26. I took half a position this morning on a flag on the 5 minute bars. I planned to buy the other half if it rallied up to around $43.50 for a cost basis of $43 and stop at $44.40 and target of $40.
Hey Dwight,
ReplyDeleteHow many stocks do you currently look at for making plays? I am putting together many stocks that fit my price range and volume. I have around 500 right now. This list of stocks will be what I go through and make watchlists out of.
Also, I've found that invidual indices, such as $XOI, $SOX, $BTK, and ETF's, such as DBA and XME, work great for determinine where money is going and coming. What do you think?
Thanks,
Joe
Dwight,
ReplyDeleteI added to my MON Put position based on the hanging man at 2:00 on the 15 minutes charts. The pull back from this mornings drop was on light volume. What do you think?
I also have another question regarding topics on your blog. I am assuming that you can write about anything.(For example questions about the future of Trade Vector). I just paid a pretty penny for the 7 week stocks and options interactive course. I have really enjoyed Investools training but that class was a waste of money. The course was really basic and really added nothing to my growth as an investor.
I am trying to be smart with my education dollars. Hence the reason for the question above.
Thanks
Mike (Chic)
Dwight,
ReplyDeleteI was trying to cherry pick on the MON hanging man formation on the 15minute charts before the candle stick was completed. It turned out to be more a spining top. I jumped the gun to early. I only added one more contract so not to big of mistake.
thnaks
Mike (Chic)
Hi Dwight,
ReplyDeleteIn virtual coaching tonight you mentioned " entry signal" What defines a really clear entry signal for you. I was somewhat confused on some of your put entries over the past few days. ADM for example it is in an uptrend I see the lower high but at the time you entered i didn't see the lower low. To me it looks like it is right above the longer term channel support. Where do I define ther trend - i would have thought that i would be trading against the trend placing a put on ADM . HELP :) Thanks!!
What defines a "eally clear entry" signal for you?
ReplyDeleteWould you describe the differences between breakout and continuation pattern? I was in ur class today when you were talking about it. I think I understand to a point, but my previous understanding was a bit off and I would like to know in more detail.
ReplyDeleteMy previous understanding was, if a stock broke above/below previous High/Low that's a breakout of support/resistance and it should be done with volume. But what I believe you were saying is, if its in a consolidation or bull/bear flag and it breaks the previous high/low then its a continuation pattern. Is this correct or is there more to it then that?
Your input and teachings are greatly appreciated.
Sung
Here is a general comment before I give some specific answers. I apologize for not answering your questions during the trading day yesterday. Some days it can get pretty busy at work and I can't rub two minutes together between phone calls. I do what I can for now, I'm working on doing some things differently in the future.
ReplyDeleteBob: I think you're in pretty good shape on ADM. I am targeting 40-41, and of course, scaling out a little as it gets closer.
Joe: I look at around 350 - 400 stocks, indexes, and sector indexes in my Universe. I usually put together a Weekly Watchlist of around 30-50 key stocks, and I watch about 10-20 closely, intra-day. I look for movers every day as well. Using the indices to determine relative strength, sector rotation, and market posture is an excellent idea.
Mike: MON sure looks like it wants to roll over, so I'm playing puts. But a move above the highs of the past four days would stop me out. As far as TradeVector, I'm not going to say anything on the record for now. Keep following along with me, I will teach you how to trade, not all about trading, there's a big difference between the two. As for the future, I am being purposely vague for now.
Claudia: there are a number of strategies and signals I use for entries. I listed some key basic buy signals in the left hand margin on the main page under Education.
Sung: ask me that question early in the next VC session of mine that you attend, and I will give you a lesson on the difference between a bounce and a breakout.