10:30 am MT: There was a smattering of Retail earnings, some Financial news with UBS, and bits and pieces of other news this morning. None of the news today seems very important. That means that the market will probably continue its Technical move, which means that there is a good probability that we go down a little more. AAPL is a good proxy for what is going on. The stock was a relative leader early in the day and then just faded off.
Just as I stated yesterday, the Energy and Commodity stocks are continuing to roll over, which will put further pressure on the market, especially since oil prices are not coming down. It may seem like a drop from $135 per barrel to some number like $128 per barrel is a big relief to the markets, but think about the big picture, not just one day. Even if oil stays at $100 per barrel, that's high.....
One other note: I sold the last of the FDX puts today for a total profit of 13%. I really like the thought of doing some DIA puts or DXD calls if the charts form up right intra-day. I may not do anything myself because I'm taking parts of today and tomorrow off from work. I will be around this afternoon/evening to review how those might have turned out if I had done them.
7:30 pm MT: Market Wrap: today was fairly quiet in the market other than Energy and Commodity stocks continued to pull back like I speculated, which I posted yesterday. I still think those areas will have a little more consolidating on the short-term. Oil Shipping really got thumped. Tomorrow is shaping up to be a light volume floater. If we drop a bit early on, then things shore up, look for a slightly bullish to bullish floater the rest of the day. A light volume floater is where Fast Money are the main players and many Big Institutional Managers are already headed out to vacation. If we float early, look for some profit taking before the end of the day. Either way, don't expect a lot of volume.
Here are some interesting Bullish stocks for quick plays (even intra-day swings). If you do play some calls, don't hold a lot of stuff through the 3-Day weekend unless it goes really strong for you:
AET, NIHD, WDC, AAPL, DXD, MCK, DRS (not DRYS), FLR, FWLT, AMZN, VRSN, LTR, and SINA
The simplist Bearish plays, if they show themselves, are puts on the DIA or SPY.
There are no big Economic Reports or big name Earnings Reports tomorrow, so we really are in for a potentially quiet day, maybe quieter than today. If we get anything, it will happen on light volume, and part of the day, at least, I expect a Floater (light volume bullish move).
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I am throwing out a possible trade set up for opinions. I have been looking at AA for a possible call.
ReplyDeleteMy techs show support at $39.65 but my Fib show that the stock bounced off the 38.2% today ($40.90). Pull back is on less volume.
What do the Dwight followers think?
Does the set up look good?
what would your trigger be?
Thanks
"Chic"
I will throw out anouther one for review.
ReplyDeleteI bought some puts on Wynn today. I show that Wynn broke a wedge formation yesterday. I bought the puts based on the hammer formation at 10:15 on the 15 minute charts. My decision was based on that it came back up and touched the bottom of my wedge and rolled over.
I would say it was an agressive entry based on volume on 15 minutes charts were high and it is the strongest of all the casino stocks. I set my stop at 105.20 so little risk. My entry was about $104.00.
Appreciate any feed back. I know that this was an aggressive entry.
Thanks
"Chic"
"Chic",
ReplyDeleteJust a word to the wise. I'm not buying anything and holding it over the weekend. The institutions are selling anything that has made them money in the past week or two. It's desperate out there and I don't want to mess with the "Big Dogs". A lot of good "Set Ups" have not carried through and have gone bad lately. If you can't watch the market throughout the day and be ready to sell on a moments notice (see Mon/Weds afternoons + DRYS, GNK,AAPL...etc). Tread lightly trader because they'll throw out 250k shares in a heartbeat to collect profits or buy on the dip. I'm chasing my trades for all I can get this week and it's very frustrating.
Good Luck!
Gary
Chic, my technical analysis of AA also shows support at $39.65 going back to August. However, if you like to incorporate closing prices when drawing your lines like I do... I'm showing recent resistance (possibly future support) smack at $39...
ReplyDeleteSince my technical analysis is showing $39 as the level the stock has used most recently as resistance, that would be my entry if the stock were to pull back to it and use it for support. So therefore, my trigger, based on my rules, would be a bounce off of $39.00, the least aggressive (read = sissy!) entry. (giggle)
However, as you mentioned, this pullback so far has been on lighter volume, and AA may very well not pull back to $39 at all.
I've the DIA bouncing of my diag. trendline on a 5 yr. chart. How about you Gary?
ReplyDeleteDwight mentioned AAPL possible bounce off the 30 day MA. Although I've vowed not to cherry pick I bought a 1/2 size when it bounced off $173.50 and confirmed on the 5 minute bars.
ReplyDeleteI also bought a 1/2 position in DELL. Although it's low priced, the spreads are only pennies.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteThat is a perfect word to describe the market today "desperate". I used my rules and did the same procedure I used in the past to make money and basically I got thrown the under bus today, it was very frustrating. The last thing I hung on to and will through the night is a put on YHOO. I think it's bearish the macd is ready to roll over, I'm only down $12.50 at this moment...
Chic - did you move forward with AA and WYNN - I just noticed your comments...
Gary - did you have any success today?
Denise
I'm trying something new for a week or so. I'm only using price action, 30day MA and volume. I'm throwing out the macd and sto. I'm going only with support, resistance and candlesticks. I read Dwight is off part of today and tomorrow does anyone know if he is doing VC tonight?
ReplyDeleteJeremy,
ReplyDeleteDwight will be on VC today.
BTW, I only use volume and the 20 day MA. (I put on the 30 day for AAPL). Since doing so it felt like I was getting better results. Last night I checked the last 7 days and I had 11 winners out of 14. Add in today's action (so far) and the record is 13 for 18.
Denise,
ReplyDeleteI only bought 3 contract (a nibble per Dwight) on AA. The options are pretty cheap so I took an aggressive entry on bounce off 38.20 fib's.
Krystal thanks for looking at AA. It appears we both have the same read on the tech's
I also nibbled on a small put position in WYNN. Currently up 8.8%but we all know how fast that can vanish with the market conditions recently.
Chic
Chic,
ReplyDeleteAA - I see support around 39.50 with the 20dma headed to that area. If you wanted to be aggressive, you can cherry pick around 40.20, which is approx. the midpoint of the candle on 5/12 and then add more if it drops to 39.50 with a tight stop below that area. On WYNN, watch the 100 area.
Jeremy,
I only use support/resistance, candlestick patterns, volume and the 20dma. I have had better results by using less. I will on occasion use the MACD, Sto, or RSI to look for divergences .
Nice results! I need to do something. I was doing good a couple weeks ago. This week as really been bad for me.
ReplyDeleteDwight,
ReplyDeleteOn Wynn, I was using a 3 month daily to draw my break of the wedge. If I backed out the time frame, I would have seen that it has not broke the wedge as you showed in VC tonight.
I am currently profitable so I will see what happens and keep it on tight leash and exit tomorrow.
Chic
Chic: WYNN is going tight. It's getting into a Triangle. However, it still has a wide enough range to make money. Right now, your key s/r as it gets tighter is between 100 and 110.
ReplyDeleteBob: nice job on AAPL, I thought it would probably bounce the 30dma, and it did.
To everyone on AA: it actually is a nice setup, but if you're Cherry Picking, then nibble at first. 39.50 is the low end of the support zone, so you want to see 39 hold.
Hey Dwight,
ReplyDeleteDidn't really do too much today..considering the market action.
Made small trades on NVDA and GYMB..down right now, but we'll see what happens tomorrow.
Anyways, if you see a nice setup but the option is pretty overpriced, does that go into your consideration of actually making that trade?
Joe
Jeremy,
ReplyDeleteSorry, I got a little busy today so your question may be answered already. I see where you're looking at the support on the 5yr but if you take it to the 10 day it looks like resistance. Honestly, I don't know whether to duck/dodge, dip/rip, run/gun (hide) abandoned ship(DRYS)stop-drop and roll... you get the picture. Sorry I had to let that out. I'm holding the last of my long trades (by s short string as long as I don't get stopped out) over the holiday if I have to. I have a date with a camper and cooler for the next four days...I think I'll be able to have a clearer picture of the situation afterwards. I hope to talk you and the rest of the group before I leave tomorrow.
Gary
Denise,
ReplyDeleteNo success today. I knew I had to be out of VIP today (earnings tomorrow) so I set a tight stop and to my surprise(not)it was hit. Went down with the ship (DRYS) today that I bought on yesterday's pull back. Up $70 at close yesterday down and out $570 by 9.45am EST today. 1.16 mil shares sold in about 15 minutes.They should put a limit on how may shares they can "dump" at one time. I'm still trying to figure out how V is going down like a rock. One more upgrade and I think it may win an award. Hopefully the market puts a stop to the oil gig, I think the market has over inflated it beyond reason-see any business website. They're actually figuring out that a 16% increase in the past few weeks is unreasonable-DUHHHHH! Okay, I'm done venting and trying to get in the game for next week. I hope everyone has a safe and happy holiday!!!
Gary
Joe: overpriced is a relative thing. I rarely analyze implied volatility unless the stock has had a dramatic move within the previous 1-2 days.
ReplyDelete