The Employment Report numbers reported in better than expected results, which is giving the stock market a solid boost before the open. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.0% from 5.1%, and beat the expectations for a rise to 5.2%. Non-Farm Payrolls fell to 20k from 80k, and beat the expectations for a loss of 75k jobs
In addition, the Fed announced it is increasing its Term Auction Facility to $150 billion from $100 billion. The Fed is increasing its swap lines to the Swiss National Bank from $6 billion to $12 billion, increasing the line to the European Central Bank from $20 billion to $50 billion, and expanding its TSLF to include AAA asset-backed securities. Based on the timing of the announcement with the Jobs Report, it looks like the Fed is trying to make sure the current rally sticks.
Look for more movement in Financials and Tech, and of course movement in most of the other sectors. Keep an eye on Big Tech, perhaps IBM is ready to move. Tech stocks may have 1-2 more days in the current swing, especially those that aren't over-extended. Financials could also run for another couple of trading days. We shall see.....
12:40 pm MT: I sold all out on ANR at this 60m swing high intra-day. I made 21% return on the trade, which I entered yesterday. I took a little out on CNX for a 48% return since yesterday, and I'm still holding most of it. I sold half my PH just now for a 35% return.
1:00 pm MT: I sold all of my MS calls for a small 15 cent profit. It's probably just me, but MS looks a little too squishy. It may still swing up some more, but I'm cutting it loose anyway. Earlier in the day I sold the rest of my ADBE calls and finished the trade, which ended up as a 43% return. ADBE looks like it has a little more gas in the tank, so it's probably ok to ride a little through the weekend.
1:20 pm MT: The SPX is at a critical point intra-day today. It is bouncing in a Bull Flag on the 60m charts. It would be better for Monday if it can close a little stronger than it is today. We had a gap and fade on the markets today (although Commodities and Energy are strong and bouncing). The only positive on the gap and fade is that is was looking like a decent Bull Flag on the 60m charts, so it would be nice to see it bounce a little into the close.
2:30 pm MT: The good news is the Bull Flags on the 60m charts of the Dow, SPX, and Naz all bounced before the close. Tech is getting tired on the short term, which was to be expected. Financials were a bit disappointing to me today, I wanted more follow-through, and that, more than any other factor, probably kept a lid on the market. Energy and Commodity stocks did their part by bouncing. Some areas were a little weaker, some a little stronger, but all and all a good day for those sectors and groups.
It's late, after a long trading day and work day. So I will talk more about next week in tomorrow's Watchlist Saturday post. I will also give a tally of my positions, and all the stocks with confirmed buy signals.
Friday, May 2, 2008
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ReplyDeleteI'm so glad you gave this update...the first thing that I noticed this morning is that alot of stocks are up in the premarket . I wondered what was going on. Thanks for filling us in!! DS
ReplyDeleteHi Dwight,
ReplyDeleteUSO has a nice bounce today but I missed it at 91.50. Deciding if I should chase it right now? I think I have the CAT with nine lives!
Gary
Thinking of trading in my "X" for AKS bounce back into the channel.
ReplyDeleteDwight, would you consider cherry picking puts on CL?
ReplyDeleteAre you buying anything at the close today?
ReplyDeleteI picked up half a position on EXM half hour before close. Don't know if that was a good move or not. I saw it bouncing off of $40 and closing above the high of yesterday with a first target of $45. I bought at 3.60 and right now it's at $4 with 9 min to market close.
ReplyDeleteJeremy,
ReplyDeleteDid you buy the May 40 EXM? I just bought the June 45 for 3.40. I hesitated all day on that....
Gary
Gary,
ReplyDeleteI did buy the May 40's and it went up so much(for me anyway) in the last 30 min. I sold at the bell for a .60 gain. I'm still in the very short term trading mode. I just started in Jan. and so far that's about all I know. Kindof leary about holding over the weekend. Not sure why though. I am still holding a half position of MS. I looked like it was trying to go green all day and it almost did at the end so I kept it.
Gary and Bob,
ReplyDeleteGood set ups on EXM and CL. Thanks!
Hey Guys,
ReplyDeleteI know CL looks good as a put, but would this be a good time to actually enter that trade since the market is intermediate bullish?
Thanks,
Joe
Dwight: Great Coaching tonight - I loved the alien trader discussion Thursday on AAPL.
ReplyDeleteQuestion: I know you had to toe the party line earlier, but since we're family here, what sites, resources etc. would you recommend to help sniff out the potential market/sector rotations you been so able to identify?
Thanks much
Robert
CANI
PS1: Thanks for PH
PS2: Lookin' forward to "Smellin' Mommo!"
Jeremy and Gary: VERY NICE on EXM, that's exactly right! I just breath a sigh of relief when I see those of you taking to the training and nailing your entries like that.
ReplyDeleteBob: Cherry Picking puts on CL is just fine, looks pretty decent, especially if the market gases out on Monday or Tuesday and rolls down for a couple of days.
Joe: the CL put is ok because the market is not IT bullish by much, and a couple of day pullback will probably make the trade work. Don't wait for the previous low to start scaling out though, take some profits a little earlier (if it works).
Robert: The day will come soon enough where I teach more of my proprietary stuff. For now, I'm making sure I give you enough information to be profitable with your trading.
Great info on the fed. Very interesting stuff. While Greenspan was in I thought all the fed did was control the rates basically.
ReplyDeleteI am sure we will all be very happy when you can or will share more of your talents.
Thanx for the post and looking forward to getting back online monday with everyone.