Retail Tries But Financials Flop

WMT beat earnings estimates by a penny, but dropped a bit at the open. The Retail Sales Report came in better than expected, but the market impact has been muted so far. It looks like the Retail Sector may have at least stayed out of the way of the potential upswing that started with the bounce yesterday.

7:40 am MT: I sold the rest of my RIG puts into the drop this morning for a 24% gain. I stopped out of the MUR puts for a 14% loss. I stopped out of the APA puts for a 3% loss. And I scratched the XTO puts for a slight gain. I locked down a little of the EMR calls for a 29% gain so far.

7:50 am MT: One of the really frustrating things with the market conditions since the middle of January, and the Fed cuts, has been the lack of sustainability. Stocks don't follow through with full swings very often, either up or down. Every little move, either bullish or bearish, and somebody is ready to sell. You've heard me describe this as a "Day Traders Market" before. It may not be quite that Choppy, but it's not too far off. It can be tough on new traders. The key is recognizing current conditions and adapting. Yesterday I posted that I am in more of a Short Swing mode right now, and there is nothing about today that is changing my opinion. I will, however, look to play a bounce on the Q's, or another stock or two, for a second stage in the current "potential" upswing. I won't be looking for a 3-7 day trade, I will look for a 1-2 trade.

8:15 am MT: I picked up some Q's calls, and I also picked up some FWLT calls on the breakout. Also, VZ and PCP may be trying to bounce today. I nibbled a little on PCP calls.

9:00 am MT: This is an important price area intra-day for the Naz and SPX. I want to see the SPX hold 1,395-1,396 and the Naz hold 2,470-2,472. I also want to see this market pick up some momentum into the end of the day. Obviously, what I don't want is another fussy swing. Even a short swing of 2-3 days will be fine.

12:30 pm MT: I locked down a little of the FWLT calls for a 23% gain intra-day. I'm still holding most of the position. I locked down a little of the IBM calls for an 11% gain so far. I'm looking to lock down a little of the EXM calls before the end of the day.

3:00 pm MT: Retail gave it a shot today. The old saying is "Lead, Follow, or Get Out of the Way." Retail did the right thing and got out of the way so Tech, Energy, and Metals/Steel/Mining could continue to lead. Financials, well.....Uncle Ben gave us the good news that his Big Intervention hasn't done the trick yet. So Financials "Got in the Way", which makes me cautious of the current upswing. I think it may have another day or two in it, but I will be ready to lock down profits quickly if the market is sloppy tomorrow.

Here are some notable Bullish Movers from today:

WLT, JEC, CNX, PCP, CHK, CLF, APA, OXY, HAL, APD, PX
FSLR, FLR, BTU, ANR, ACI, CMI, HES, FTI, WFT, NE, NBR, NOV, PXD, EOG, APC, SLB, PXP, AKS, CSX

I may look at some of the bolded stocks above for a quick, 1-2 day trade

Here are some notable Bearish Movers from today:

BG
XTO, NDAQ, MON, POT, CF

Energy and Tech led the market today. I like the Tech part, but if we continue to get leadership out of Energy and/or Commodities for several more weeks, and Financials (and Retail) lag, then the Stock Market will probably have a tough time sustaining a bullish trend throughout the summer.

One last note, WMT is done for now, the trend is consolidating.