Watchlist Saturday

Here is my watchlist for the upcoming week. I have included a market posture as well. I indicate stocks that may be starting to go bullish (or bearish), or are bullish (or bearish) but are not quite ready in italics. I indicate stocks that are bullish (or bearish) but may be too extended short term, in parenthesis. I indicate stocks that are bullish (or bearish) and might be playable short term in a regular font. I indicate bullish (or bearish) stocks that appear to be close to a buy signal, or are giving a buy signal, in bold font. The bolded stocks are the most compelling to me because they may be a trade entry soon. I have abbreviated Intermediate Term (IT), and Short Term (ST).

Dow: IT Bearish and ST Bearish to Neutral. The Dow is flying down to support at 11,750 on heavy selling volume, and may finish the job on Monday. The market is getting fairly close to the Bernanke Pavlov Zone or BPZ, so don't be surprised by some sort of rhetoric coming from the Fed early next week. ST resistance is at 12,000.

SPX: IT Bearish and ST Bearish to Neutral. The SPX is also falling pretty hard on heavier volume. There is ST support at 1,310, and then again at 1,300. The BPZ on the SPX is 1,275, so the SPX is not falling quite as fast as the Dow. ST resistance is at 1,325 and then again at 1,342.

Naz: IT Bearish and ST Bearish to Neutral. The Naz has two Bearish Kicking Patterns in June (June 6 and June 20). That's two nasty headfakes in a little over two weeks, which doesn't bode well for Tech stocks, at least for several more weeks. We may see nice bounces next week, but expect them to be short-lived, and expect the general Tech stock trend to continue consolidating on the IT, and perhaps go more bearish. The Naz has ST support between 2,388 - 2,400. The next support down is 2,350. Resistance is 2,430.

The Dow has been downtrending for a month, and the SPX is not far behind. The Naz and the NDX are currently rolling down from Double-Tops, which are looking a little like Rounding Tops as well. Now, even the Small Caps (SML), and the Mid Caps (MID) are forming Head and Shoulders Tops (unconfirmed but getting close). This means that the Russell 2000 (RUT) is also forming a Head and Shoulders Top. We may get oversold short term sometime on Monday, or perhaps Tuesday at the latest, but any ST bounces won't change the IT trend right away. We may be in for more bearish trading at least until the speculation on July Earnings Season kicks in early next month.

I'm very comfortable with the Q's puts right now. Several of the Mid Cap and Small Cap indexes and stocks could continue to roll down Monday and perhaps Tuesday. I think that Tech, Energy, some Metals, and some other Commodity areas look pretty weak short-term. I think the "Energy down and Market up" trade may not be as correlated as it was the past month. It looks like most everything is consolidating on the "Economic Slowing" and "Summer Slowing" sentiment which has picked up momentum with traders the past 2-3 weeks. I am still looking for a bounce on Monday or Tuesday, and I may play some quick calls, but the overall market is decidedly bearish.

Here is my Weekly Watchlist. Make sure to check the option spreads before paper trading. Ideally, I want spreads of .10-.20 cents on options for stocks between 20-200 dollars.

BULLISH SECTORS/GROUPS AND STOCKS:

Short Index ETF's: FXP, QID, TWM, SRS, (SDS, DXD)
Copper: PCU (but FCX is rolling over, so watch PCU closely)
Chemicals/Agriculture: (CF, TRA, MOS, AGU), POT
Coal: (MEE, ANR, CNX, ACI, WLT)
Energy: (PXD, NBR, HK, CHK, HP, ESV, DNR)
Steel: X, STLD
Railroads: UNP, NSC, CSX
Tech: (ENER, ATVI), RIMM, CSIQ
Note: APOL, GS, JOYG, CMI

BEARISH SECTORS/GROUPS AND STOCKS:

Manufacturing/Machinery: IR, EMR, PH
Financials: (ALL, TRV, COF, AXP, PRU, MER), ICE
Index ETF's: IWM, MDY, QQQQ, EWZ, EEM, (DIA, SPY)
Defense: (HON, GD)
Leisure: (HOT, LVS), WYNN
REIT's: PLD
Oil Shipping: DRYS, EXM, GNK
Note: A lot of Energy is consolidating down: APA, SLB, SII, XLE, ECA NBL, BHI, (XOM)
Note: Retail has rolled over: (WMT, COST, RTH, SHLD, BBY, TGT, AMZN, KSS)
Note: Tech is rolling over: IBM, WFR, KLAC, ERTS, SOHU, AAPL, ADBE, QCOM, NIHD, WDC, INFY, ADSK
Note: Some Steel/Aluminum is consolidating: AKS, AA, SID, CLF, MTL
Note: JEC, AMT, (AMX, MMM, CI, PG, CL)

One quick note: I started creating videos and testing the upload and formatting process for Blogspot early last week. I can't get past a formatting restriction on Blogspot that re-sizes my videos down to about 3 x 4 inches on a 19 inch monitor. I think it's too small to be useful so I'm working on alternatives. There is no way around the Blogspot formatting restrictions, so I am going to create a regular web page to host the video tutorials. I hope to have that done in the next few days.