Durable Orders came in better than expected, which is giving the market a little wiggle into the green out of the gate. The SPX has a chance to test the 1,262 - 1,265 area. I will be watching for puts on SPY and DIA if the market rolls over again after testing those areas based on the Evening Star Reversals we got yesterday.
It looks like Energy and Liesure/Discretionary Spending (Retail, Airlines etc.) will battle it out today. It will be interesting to see who wins that battle. I am going to nibble on SPY and DIA puts this morning if the indexes roll over intra-day, and I will take some of the profits early, if the market does fade below yesterday's lows. I will decide towards the end of the day if I keep any of the puts through the weekend.
8:00 am MT: the market rallied a little, and the SPX made it right into the zone that I was watching for. The morning high was 1,263 and the SPX is still fighting. We may see 1,266 in a few minutes. I'm also looking for 11,480 - 11,500 on the Dow. Whatever plays out, I'm watching for that intra-day reversal. We'll see if we get it.....
Market Wrap: The major indexes finished up on the day, but down for the week. Durable Orders gave the market a little wiggle, which was enough to play some intra-day puts. But overall the action was pretty quiet. Earnings Season is still tossing the market around, and that theme will continue with plenty more companies reporting next week. After that, things quiet down a bit on the earnings front. The Dow and the SPX still look like they are susceptible to rolling down a bit further off the Evening Star Reversal from Thursday. The Naz is very choppy, trading up one day and down the next in a tight consolidation channel. I will look for a potential put play on DIA or SPY again on Monday, but I don't want to hold overnight because there are so many companies reporting earnings on Monday night and Tuesday morning.
I picked up some DIA puts when the index was around 114.30 early in the day. I also picked up some SPY puts at the same time, when SPY was around 126.25. I sold both positions about 20 minutes or so before the close, just before the Hot Potato bounce I warned was going to come at the end of the day (I wrote about on yesterday's post). Here are the final tallies: SPY was a .28 cent profit or 6% gain intra-day, and DIA was a .50 cent profit or 11% gain intra-day. I would have liked more, obviously, but some days you just take your $500 bucks and walk.
Some of you played the CYMI puts and CELG calls that I mentioned. Those, along with several other stocks from the watchlist ended up being very nice plays. On Saturday's Watchlist I will set up some stocks to watch for Monday, and some earnings stocks to watch for Tuesday.
Friday, July 25, 2008
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Yep. SPX rolled around 1263. Good call DA. I picked some puts off there and added on the second top (15 min chart). Sold some late in day. Still holding some. First weekend holdover in months. Mistake?
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Dan: I think you're still ok on holding part of the puts over the weekend. If we don't get a news bogey, then the SPY and DIA look susceptible to a further drop down on Monday. After that, I'm probably not going to hold over Monday night because we get so many earnings reports which will affect the market (positively or negatively - who knows?) on Tuesday. Nice job on the puts, good trading.
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