Market Fades Early and then Goes Quiet

Note: don't forget that today's trading ends at 11:00 am MT or 1:00 pm ET.

The Employment Report came in only slightly worse than expected with -62k versus -60k estimated on Non-farm Payrolls and 5.5% versus 5.4% on the Unemployment Rate. The report's numbers are not quite bad enough to cause a gap down this morning, but the numbers are soft enough that the bulls won't be inspired to "buy with both hands." In addition, oil futures spiked towards $146 per barrel before easing back a little. With the news, the shortened trading session, and the 3-Day Holiday Weekend, there doesn't appear to be any catalyst for Big Money Bulls to buy today. Shorts may cover in the morning, and they may cover again before the close, but I don't expect a real momentum day either up or down. I will sell all my directional puts and call trades if I have a profit before the close.

7:25 am MT: I decided to place sell orders on all my trades pre-market. I'm going to lock first thing this morning, and then if I see something develop during the day I may trade it. But the shortened trading day will make it tougher to get a Day Swing on the 30m or 60m charts and I need something with a lot of momentum in order to play the 15m chart swing (and I seldom play a swing on the 15m charts).

7:35 am MT: I sold the last of the CNX puts, all told I made a 1.80 profit on the CNX trades. I also sold the EXM puts, all told I made a .50 cent profit on the EXM trades. Lastly, I sold the GNK puts for .50 cent profit, or 8% gain. CELG is making a little move up this morning, so I will ride that for a little while and sell if it reaches $71 - $72. I don't mind staying with CELG even if it stays in the Bullish Pennant that it appears to be forming.

7:45 am MT: so far this morning it looks like the soft Jobs Report is leading to a soft open. The Naz has broken to new lows on the downswing, and the SPX just followed. It appears that Big Money is selling out of some stocks early in the day.

I'm going to walk away for a bit, I don't want to get too inside of this. I still wonder if Big Money is trying to get everything done early this morning and then when the Shorts sense it's over they'll start covering and then the market will go tighter by mid-morning. So far, it's a put trader's day.

2:30 pm MT: Market Wrap: Today played out exactly how I thought it would. The market faded early, and I sold all my puts. Then it bounced on short-covering mid-morning. The end of the shortened trading day was pretty quiet. The net result was a soft Thump and Bump. I didn't do anything significant other than lock down my puts.

The Employment Report was soft enough, along with a poor ISM Services report today that I can't really see any scenario for a change in the intermediate term trend. We will probably get a bounce next week since this week got pretty overcooked on the short term. Now, if oil prices spike even more early next week then we may get more selling before the bounce, but any easing in the price of oil by $5 - $10 per barrel will probably be enough to get Shorts to cover and give us a little bounce. However, barring a big drop in oil prices based on a supply increase, we don't have much in the way of catalysts to change the intermediate term bearish trend. We are coming up on Earnings Season in the next two weeks, but I just can't see corporate earnings being strong enough to change the intermediate term trend. We may get a speculative, short term bounce ahead of earnings by next week, especially if oil eases a little and shorts get nervous about the short term oversold conditions, but I'm not looking for anything but volatility the next few weeks.