This is a reminder that the stock market will close early on Thursday ahead of the Holiday Weekend. Trading will end at 11:00 am MT or 1:00 pm ET. Here is a link to the Market Holiday Schedule:
http://www.nyse.com/about/newsevents/1176373643795.html
Also remember that the Employment Report comes out pre-market tomorrow morning. If the numbers miss expectations then the market will probably gap down. If that happens, use the gap down as an opportunity to lock down most of you profits on the puts. If we get a gap down then I speculate that it won't be long before the short come in and cover ahead of the 3-Day Weekend. If we run up out of gate, then the bulls might use that as an opportunity to sell a little more ahead of the weekend. Either way, don't look for a momentum day. Big Traders are going to want to get most everything done early and go on vacation. Based on the nervousness over the ADP report today, it wouldn't surprise me to get a soft Employment Report, but the estimates are already pretty low (-60k Nonfarm Payrolls and 5.4% on the Unemployment Rate). I speculate that it's going to take a -65k or greater or a -5.5% or higher to gap the market down. So unless we get catastrophic numbers way beyond those areas, expect a Thump and Bump on any numbers that are slightly worse than expected, and expect that Bump to come in pretty darn quick. If we get slightly better than expected numbers the market may run up for an hour or two before any selling, and I don't expect the selling to be very aggressive. The market may get fairly quiet towards the end of the trading day, with any drama on the 5m charts, but not much drama on the daily charts.
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
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Thanks Dwight for the heads up on the short day!
ReplyDeleteQuestion: Do you plan to hold any thing over the weekend? and/or buy any puts on the market in case of a Black Monday on the 7th?
Thanks
Robert
CANI_212
Robert: I'm not going to hold anything over the weekend if I can help it. I actually wouldn't be surprised if we bounce a little on Monday, but we shall see. I think the main catalyst will be oil prices. If oil futures spike towards 150 then maybe we get a climax selling day sometime next week.
ReplyDeleteRobert, Dwight,
ReplyDeleteI was wondering the same thing... I'm not sure if I want to enter a position ahead of three days of time decay, even if I do get my entry signal.
Krystal: I know I can always get back in to something on Monday and avoid the uncertainty of holding a quick, directional call or put over a 3-Day Weekend.
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