Wednesday, July 9, 2008

The Market Has Indigestion

Earnings are starting to trickle in with AA yesterday. The company beat expectations, which should be expected with most Commodity and Energy stocks this earnings season. NUE received an upgrade. So the AA and NUE news, although not extremely significant, will probably give Metals a boost this morning. The rest of the market will probably carry through with the bounce that started yesterday, although the catalyst is more of an oversold market than it is a positive expectation for earnings across all sectors.

7:33 am MT: I stopped out of HIG, ALL, and X. I lost .49 cents on ALL and 1.28 on HIG. I lost 2.83 on X but it was a very small position so the total loss was $566. I started some AAPL and MOS calls. The MOS position is very small.

7:40 am MT: I added a little to the AAPL calls. I think the market could kick back and forth for a little while this morning before it decides what it wants to do next. I am staying with the CNX and ACI puts because I'm cherry picking and the positions are so small that I am planning on adding to the puts in 1-3 days. I'm anticipating a lower high on those two stocks. I'm also anticipating lower highs on Steel stocks, but I am more interested in STLD and NUE (despite the upgrade) and I am going to wait out the current bounce. With earnings coming up soon on many stocks, I don't want to get any new puts until I see a little more of what's happening in the market.

8:00 am MT: I started some GILD calls. I took a larger position because I like the setup.

8:15 am MT: MOS is pretty extreme on the intra-day charts, and the stock made it to it's 10dma in a blink, so I sold the calls for a profit. I will buy them back on a pullback intra-day. I made $513 on the trade. Also, GILD is pretty extreme on the intra-day charts, so I may sell part of the position and then buy it back on an intra-day pullback.

8:26: am MT: I sold half the GILD calls for a .40 cent profit or 11.5% gain. I will buy them back on an intra-day pullback to 54.50 - 54.75 if it happens. I also picked up a little more AAPL.

8:30 am MT: The major indexes are all fighting with their 10dma's, that's why we have the morning pause. If the Naz, Dow, and SPX can break through the 10dma, then I speculate that the market will most likely rally pretty sharply for several hours on short-covering. We shall see.....

11:25 am MT: Here is what I have done the past couple of hours: I culled ELN for a .15 cent profit. I like WYE and GILD better right now, so I'm playing them. I nibbled small call positions on TRA and CLF. I also picked up a call position on AEM.

1:30 pm MT: The wild ride continues with the market selling off mid-day. Traders continue to slosh around, some bargain buying, some panicking, some day trading, and a whole lot of uncertainty. The past two weeks traders have treated open positions like hot potatoes, bulls don't want to be long, bears don't want to be short, and the market continues to grind and churn through the turmoil. Overall, the major indexes are holding the recent lows, so for now I will just sit tight and watch.

1:55 pm MT: I took advantage of the downdraft to stop out of the ACI and CNX puts rather than play around with them any further. They were a $388 and $389 loss respectively. I'm holding everything else.

Market Wrap: There have been four headfakes on the SPX the past six days, so it's back to that fun stuff. We have seen about five of these types of weeks this year, which makes for some tough trading. I may try something a little different tomorrow to handle a possible fifth headfake in seven days. I may take a large put position on the DIA, SPY, and QQQQ to hedge my calls and then just see which way things go. The market continues to be oversold, and it continues to headfake, so I may try hedging rather than trying to get too inside the chop and slop.

I don't have a lot to say in the market wrap because traders didn't do anything different than they have been for awhile, which is to chop, lump, grind, and gyrate. There's been a lot of that this year. Fortunately, we have seen a little trending here and there in order to make some money in the long run. Once again, there is no reason to get loaded up on trades. That's been the toughest thing about this year, there have been very few periods of time that I could really dive in deep and grab a lot of trades and just ride them. That was last year, this is this year.....

As it is, if the market indexes start breaking to new lows tomorrow then I will hedge my calls with put positions on the DIA, SPY, and QQQQ. We'll see what tomorrow brings, more chop and slop or some kind of resolution to the current indigestion.

18 comments:

  1. Dwight,

    You often seem to find these great "movers" before they happen! How are you identifying them? I know some traders use scans using a variety of indicators to find the movers. What are you using and what advice can you give?

    Thanks
    Shane

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  2. I run up an down my watchlist several times in the morning. GILD, MOS, and AAPL were on my "watch out for these ones" post from yesterday. So I watched them, and they moved, and I traded them.

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  3. Okay, guys... I need help.

    Is anyone able to share any insight on "rolling" your position to protect profits (but still participate in further movement)?

    For example, I hopped into FTO on 6/26 when it broke the $25 support level. Target: $17.00.

    In order to protect my gains, I could take profits on the position, and roll it into a new one with a lower delta and still participate in the rest of the move. The big question for me is this: Knowing that retracements are common with breakouts and breakdowns, how (or where) do I manage risk when I know that I am part of the way into a move? Or, in other words, how do I determine where to place a stop IN THE MIDDLE of a forecasted move?

    Am I making sense? I've been trying to figure this out for weeks and I've been going around in circles and I'M ABOUT AT THE END OF MY ROPE!

    WHY AM I SCREAMING!?!?!?

    No, no... I'll be okay. I just need to breathe...

    Exhale.

    Help.

    P.S. If anyone has anything they can share with me about this, you can post it here, or email me- krystallwilliams@hotmail.com- and I'll do my screaming there...

    As you were.

    Hmmmph.

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  4. Dwight,
    with the earnings season upon us, I realize this may cause volitility, is this going to cause downward movement?

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  5. Interesting choice with AEM Dwight. What made you choose Agnico over Goldcorp GG which has a very similar short term chart but stronger long term chart, plus the stock price is relatively lower? Just interested to learn your thinking, thanks.
    Francis

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  6. Krystal,

    That is a good problem to have. I wish I had it more often. Here is the way I do it, from a money managment perspective. I am sure Dwight has better methods. I set my stops to the stock high (for calls or low for puts) of the previous day or I add the current day's gain to the existing stop. I also scale out most of the position when it gets extend and let a small portion run. I use the latest bid and not the last.

    Better methods are welcome.

    Don

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  7. Dwight,

    I bought put on AAPL once it broken down from 179. I'm thinking of taking profit. Do you see today's action as a lower high?

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  8. Dwight,

    I bought COST puts at $72.70 when the engulfing looked like it would hold. Does a target of $70.00 seem reasonable?

    Thx

    Bob

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  9. Dwight,

    What do you think of GLD for a call play.

    Thanks, Tom

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  10. Ah, Don. I see what you're saying.

    Thanks so much!

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  11. Ken: AAPL hasn't officially made a lower high, although it is a Bearish Engulfing. AAPL is coming up on it's downtrending support line, so you might think about taking profits in the morning.

    Bob: same pattern on COST as AAPL, watch the 71 - 71.50 area first for partial profits, then if it gets through that look for 70.

    Tom: GLD did confirm a bounce today, so it's giving the signal. On the trade, watch 92, if it gets through that it could reach 94.

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  12. The market is like Jaws, just when you think it's safe to go back in the water the market comes up and bites your legs off!

    It will be interesting to see the hedge play in action. I have heard of people doing this but never have watched exactly how.

    Dwight, do you think you would ever use a little bit of futures to do this?

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  13. Dwight,

    Would you consider re-entering ALL to the down side?

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  14. Ken: I don't think I will because we are getting too many headfakes on the Financials right now, which is causing headfakes on the market. It may be a good put play, but my suggestion is to put on a full position, keep the stops tight, and as soon as you are up a little, sell half and try to ride the rest. Don't give it a lot of breathing room.

    Steve: I'm going to hedge in a way that I like as a short term trader. I'll take a much larger than normal size position on DIA and SPY if the market is in an intra-day downswing tomorrow. As soon as I'm up .30 - .50 cents I will sell half and bring my stop to breakeven. If the market continues to sell off then I'm hedged, if it headfakes again then I'm out with a small profit. The key is to catch the intra-day swing with momentum, probably on a breakdown below the short term lows. The next key is having a liquid stock, and DIA and SPY are very liquid. The final key is that the first stage of the trade could be over in 5 - 10 minutes, and you have to be ready to lock, because if it is a head fake, it won't stay at the new lows very long. If you look at SPY on July 3 and July 7 you can see that the breakdown before the head fake lasted 20 minutes and 2 hours respectively.

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  15. Dwight, I used the early morning upswing to close out my SPY Iron Condor bull put position of 123,124. I also sold a new bear call at 130,131 to pay for closing the bull spread. By the end of the day I was up another 20 cents. I had thought about closing the bull spread yesterday but decided to wait just a little longer and I am glad I did. How is your SPY IC workiing?

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  16. Krystal
    you are a screenwriter.... take profits, pat yourself on the back for a good trade and get in again

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  17. Dwight,
    Thanks for helping us-appreciated much!
    Your thoughts:
    OIH-was today a hammer 7/10/08
    CLEG-settiing up for a flag pattern? 7/10/08
    $XAU-any thoughts?
    I was able to be at my computer most of day today. I traded NOV, AEM, CLF-still in them as of close today.
    Thanks,
    Margot

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