Pre-market futures are down on more bad news in Financials. A Citigroup analyst lowered earnings estimates on Brokers LEH, GS, and MS. Financials could take another leg down in their current swings today.
Weekly Jobless Claims came in slightly better than expected, which briefly boosted the futures until traders started focusing on Financials again. The Jobless Claims number is above 400k, which is bad, but down from last week and below the consensus, which is good.
Financials and Oil will take front and center again today, and the market will battle with yesterday's range. If the Dow breaks through yesterday's floor, then look for another 80 - 100 point drop down into the 11,200 - 11,220 area. We could have a mixed day if oil drops towards $110, which would offset the bearishness in Financials. But the drop in Weekly Jobless Claims just might get oil running up, which would put the double-whammy on stocks today.
7:25 am MT: I just checked the current price of oil and it's up and climbing towards $120.....So the resistance area that I posted yesterday at $117.50 is breached and the market is probably headed south today on a double-whammy.
7:00 pm MT: Quick Market Wrap: The market stuck it out today. Considering oil broke resistance and ran to the $122.50 area as I warned of on yesterday's post, the market hung in there pretty good. Ok.....so buying in Energy and Commodity stocks because Oil is going up and the Dollar is dropping is not my favorite recipe for a bullish day, but the market is holding up fairly well.
Obviously Energy and Commodity stocks are moving up like POT, COP, HES, NOV, ACI, and BTU to name a few, but other sectors looked decent as well. Tech stocks like ADBE and RIMM were flashing some decent signals (and of course STP and that group - which is getting overbought short term). Machinery/Agriculture stocks like JOYG were strong. Railroads like BNI were bouncing. Healthcare like AET bounced. And even some Retail stocks like AMZN, TGT, and KSS are bouncing a little.
Bearish sectors are the Casinos and Financials, and a number of stocks continued to sell in those areas today.
I got caught up on answering comments/questions for the past two days. I will try to get caught up sending out the latest referral files by tomorrow.
One last note: I am taking Thursday and Friday off. I will still be doing VC, and I will still get the post opened pre-market as usual. But the rest of the postings will be brief until the weekend.
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I think I'll let my USO calls run an little while then...
ReplyDeleteI have no oil stocks, but got into BUCY yesterday. AGU broke a head and shoulders so I bought a couple cents above the low on the 2 minute bars this morning. Been short CHRW for several days.
ReplyDeleteCherry picked ESRX and getting ready to dump depending on the close. Also cherry picked XLF (w/very tight stop) at bottom of channel based on strength relative to Fannie and Freddie debacle.
Dwight,
ReplyDeleteThanks for another VC. You make things so clear when you teach. I'm catching on slowly but surely. Your risk management is incredible in your trading style! I hope to duplicate it someday, 'cause it seems that you peck away at the market and beat them at their own game..even in these conditions, incredible. Once again, thanks for all you do.
Gary
bob s,
ReplyDeleteDid you hold ESRX into the close? I did.
Gary: you're welcome. I'm always looking to manage risk according to the probability of what I see on the charts.
ReplyDeleteHello Dwight and to all.
ReplyDeleteSorry, I am being thick but I logged on to VC today at 6pm Pacific but no Dwight.
Checked the virtual coaching schedule whict talks about "Easter time" could you confirm when Dwight is on VC again for this twit? Thanks.
Francis
Francis,
ReplyDeleteIt would be 4:00pm PST cause it's 7:00pm EDT ( assuming 3 hr difference for daylight savings time) on Thursday/Friday. Wednesday is at 11:00am EDT, so 8:00am PST?
Righto Gary,
ReplyDeleteThanks for that!
ESRX is looking good, you're in I take it.
Looks like a viable entry tomorrow as well?
any comment? Not looking for a tip, just interested.thanks.
Francis
Gary, still holding ESRX.
ReplyDeleteBob
Gary and Bob,
ReplyDeleteI am still holding ESRX also. Waiting for it to break is like watching paint dry.
Chic
Francis,
ReplyDeleteYes, not a bad entry tomorrow target is 78ish stop is around 73.40. Very volatile so I wait until 1/2hr before close to see where its at.
Chi,
Yea, its been a real nail biter. Hopefully today is the day.
cheers and thanks Gary!
ReplyDeleteFrancis