Sunday, October 19, 2008

Watchlist Weekend


Market Posture:

The overall market, including the three major indeces (Dow, SPX, and Naz) are long term bearish, intermediate term bearish, and short term bullish to neutral. The indexes may be in the process of working through an intermediate term bottom. I would put the statistical probability at about 65% that this area on the markets is an intermediate term bottom. You can see from the candlestick charts on the Dow, SPX, and Naz that it appears that the bulls want to hold the lows from the past several weeks. It may be that the market puts in a mini Double Bottom in this area. I included line charts on all three indexes to show the semi fragile nature of that Double Bottom, however, it's still holding up for now.

Tomorrow is light on earnings and economic reports, so outside of a bad news bogey I'm not looking for an extreme move. I'm speculating on a possible Drifter Day where the markets drift up a bit and tighten the daily range a bit. For that reason I'm looking at a list of potential bullish movers tomorrow, whether it's the index ETF's or the stock watchlist below.

First the major index charts.....

Here is a chart of the Dow:
(click on image to enlarge)


Here is a line chart of the Dow:
(click on image to enlarge)



Here is a chart of the SPX:
(click on image to enlarge)



Here is a line chart of the SPX:
(click on image to enlarge)



Here is a chart of the Naz:
(click on image to enlarge)



Here is a line chart of the Naz:
(click on image to enlarge)



Here is a list of potential bullish movers tomorrow. I have a broader list than this, with a few more sectors, but I'm more focused on these charts than any others for tomorrow.

Here is a chart of NIHD:
(click on image to enlarge)



Here is a chart of ERTS:
(click on image to enlarge)



Here is a chart of AAPL (two notes: the first is that there is a data error on the chart - AAPL's low on Friday was 97.00 and not 86.00, the second is that earnings are on Tuesday):
(click on image to enlarge)



Here is a chart of BNI:
(click on image to enlarge)



Here is a chart of BTU:
(click on image to enlarge)



Here is a chart of NUE:
(click on image to enlarge)



Here is a chart of TGT:
(click on image to enlarge)


Here is a chart of GR:
(click on image to enlarge)


I'm looking for volatility to increase again on Tuesday as the earnings reports come flooding back in to the market. We are also inching closer to election season. We will probably need to see positive earnings on Monday evening and Tuesday morning for the Double Bottom to hold up and carry through. For tomorrow, I speculate the best case scenario for the Bulls is a run back up to the resistance zones I indicated on the charts. As always, we shall see.....


6 comments:

  1. Thanks Dwight for the market analysis and watchlist charts.

    - Troy

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  2. Dwight,
    Thanks for the early posting. We appreciate you!

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  3. Dwight,

    Again, thanks for the postings and all you do, its a great help. And though you might not know it, you not posting as much this past week has helped me to really get out there on my own.

    Also, how do you know AAPL's low on Friday was 97. I've checked everywhere and keep finding 86.

    Joe

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  4. Dwight,
    New to your blog and so grateful for it! Your incite is gold in these volatile times. Thank you, thank you. Just wondering when you are on virtual coaching?
    Rachel

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  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  6. Hi Dwight

    I spent some time looking at the financials to see if the Fed's program is having any effect. My conclusion is that the financials are holding better than other sectors. BUT the only bank I found in an uptrend was JPM which has put in a higher low and a higher high. The others have not reached this level of success.

    Ken B

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