Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Market Data Day

This morning will be filled with market data as Housing Starts/Building Permits and Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization are yet to report. In addition, DE blew it's earnings and HPQ has earnings after the close. As always, we are also getting inundated with bailout/recession type of news with GM submitting their viability plan in order to secure "stimulus" aid.

Yesterday's selling didn't wast any time as usual. Like so many other days in our new world order market saturated with Fund Managers the Dow dropped sharply and quickly to within breathing distance of the next support. I expect the market to settle out in the 7,500 area or slightly lower after the current intra-day consolidation is over. However, much of that will be dependent on the economic reports that are yet to be reported this morning.

Here is a chart of the Dow:
(click on image to enlarge)


Here is a chart of the SPX:
(click on image to enlarge)


The Fundies have been trying to buy the market over and over again because they think it's very oversold. The problem is the fundamentals and the new economic paradigm don't support their thesis. As I watch them chop and gyrate and flail away looking for their bottom, I'm reminded of something about two hands and a flashlight.....

Nevertheless, if we get soft data this morning, I'm still only looking for a little more carry-through on the downswing and then a settling down short-term. Remember, we are also at risk for a news bogey, although by now you'd think the Bulls would have figured it out.....and that reminds me of something about cheeze and a bell......

1:30 pm MT: Intra-day Update: The market did settle in right below 7,500 (7,480) just as I speculated pre-market. This is turning into a Pauser Day, also as I speculated. So the range has been established, which will probably be broken tomorrow (Friday at the latest).

4 comments:

  1. I am SO flippin tired of getting whipsawed. Yesterday felt we might be finding a ST low, so I basically rode stocks down all day, having only mental stops. I lost more than I wanted but felt it was Short term.

    Today I set what I felt were very lenient stops, and I got stopped out on EACH of them, and now they're all higher.

    I am an expert at getting stopped out... then having it turn on me.

    Kevin

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  2. Kevin,
    I feel you pain brother.
    One thing that you might do is set your stop at the same time that you buy the stock then you don't lose so much. Also, you might have a plan where you sell a covered call on the stock rather than sell the stock.
    Keith

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  3. Kevin: You might try getting into the SKYPE group, they stay pretty in-tune with the swings.

    ReplyDelete
  4. hey guys, can i join your skype group?

    I'm interested in swing trading largely commodity based stocks and etfs, largely b/c they can't go to 0.

    FCX / GDX / USO / XLE and then of course some main market stuff.

    if someone wouldn't mind letting me know how to join, pls contact me at kevin at manicmelon dot com

    thanks all

    kevin

    ReplyDelete