Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Technical Bounce Day 2

The bullish momentum from yesterday's big move is set to push a little more out of the gate this morning. Yesterday I speculated the furthest the market would go intra-day was the 725 area, which is still a natural consolidation point if the market moves up right at the open. I speculate that the 725 area will be an intra-day resistance, but the market will eventually push through and continue this technical bounce.

Here is a chart of the SPX:
(click on image to enlarge)


The next intra-day wiggle point will probably be the 730 area. The market was oversold enough that a technical bounce on the daily charts back to the 740 - 750 area in the next couple of days would be reasonable, and overshooting in to the 760-770 area would not be out of the question because of short covering along with bargain buying.

Today, I would prefer the 700 area to hold on any deep pullbacks, and 693 is my drop dead line. If the technical bounce is to carry through with a little momentum, I would really like to see the 705-710 area hold and the market not come all the way back to 700 or lower.

7:58 pm MT: Intra-day Update: The market wiggled for a moment right out of the gate and then ran to the second intra-day resistance level in the 730 area (overshooting a couple of points). It's now at the next pausing point intra day. If the price action gets too frenetic in the next hour then we could have a lengthy mid-day consolidation of the sharp move up.

4 comments:

  1. Dwight,

    What say you on the overall outlook for the ending of the week? Just looks like a pause to bearish on the S&P to me.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks Dwight. So what are your thoughts on tommorrow with today's consolidation?


    Here's what I did tooday:

    PBR -11%/-$15 (1 contract), TGT -14%/-$31 (1 contract), AMZN +12%/+$165 (4 contracts throughout day), CF +29%/+$55 (1 contract), HOG +17%/+$10 (1 contract, quick momentum trade early in day), SHLD +2%/+$10 (1 contract) and still holding 1 SPY call.

    Joe

    ReplyDelete
  3. Great Job Joe,

    Your hard work is paying off.

    Dwight is the way :)

    Margo

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  4. Anonymous: The market is 50/50 going in to tomorrow. The pause pattern today could go either way. The key catalyst in the morning will be the Weekly Jobless Claims number, followed by the Retail Sales number, which are the only significant economic reports all week.

    So tomorrow will probably hinge on the data that comes out, which will also dictate the rest of the swing, and the rest of the week.

    ReplyDelete