I like to take a good look at my universe of stocks on Saturday and build my watchlist for the week. Then I tweek it throughout the week.
Bullish:
Some Financials, REITS, and Retail are turning around a little, maybe bottoming out. Here are some areas to watch:
Brokers: MS, GS
Banks: BAC, JPM, MTB, ZION, PNC
Services: AXP, KBE, COF, MA
REITS: GGP, PLD, EQR, AVB, PSA
Retail: NKE, SHLD
Commodities and Energy are still hanging in there, but there are a lot of Commodities and Energy stocks I will look to play puts on if they make lower highs. Here are some of the strongest right now:
Metals/Mining: CLF
Steel: STLD, NUE
Energy: (EOG, RIG, XTO, ESV holding up for now)
Also:
Tech: RIMM, IBM
Biotechs: GILD, DNA
Food/Beverage: KO, PEP
Manufacturing/Machinery: CAT
Bearish:
Some Retail, Commodities, Energy, and Financials are Bearish. Some Healthcare and Healthcare related are also Bearish.
Retail: JCP, BBY
Media: MHP
Drugs/Wholesale/Stores: MCK, CAH, MHS
Energy: VLO, NOV, SU, (ECA, DVN, APA, APC starting to go bearish)
Copper: FCX
Steel: SID, MTL
Chemicals/Agriculture: DBA, (CF, MOS starting to go bearish)
Gold: (AEM, GDX, GG, ABX starting to go bearish)
HMO's: HUM
We have some key tipping points in Energy and Commodities. If we bounce up this week in those sectors, will we make lower highs? We have some pockets of strength growing in Financials, Tech, and Retail. But the big question is how much is real buying and how much is short covering? The markets may be starting to shore up a little. But a lower high in Energy and Commodities will offset higher lows in Financials, Tech, and Retail, which will keep the market somewhat choppy. For now, I am looking for an upswing continuation Monday and Tuesday, with Wednesday's Durable Orders and Oil Inventory Report tipping the market up or down based on the numbers. So I'll play out my calls early in the week and then watch for the next move. As always, I don't have a magic future machine, so that's why I have stops.
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Dwight:
ReplyDeleteThanks for the post on the weekend and the trading ideas.
Questions: At what points (values) do you think the markets will go bullish or bearish based on the Durable Orders and Crude Inventories? Since durable orders is before market opens and crude inventories during market hours-which report would influence the market most? or maybe they influence specific sectors??
Also, how would you play that day with time difference in the reports?
Thanks
Robert
CANI
Durable Orders and the Oil Inventory Report on Wednesday, the Jobless Claims on Thursday, and Personal Spending on Friday will be the "recessionary" numbers along with GDP on Thursday (which is a little too backward looking sometimes). Anything way out of line will cause a short-term dump. All of them bad and we dump for a few days or longer. The other issue is inflation, which will be outlined in the Chain Deflator and the Core PCE on Thursday and Friday. Of all the possible "recessionary" reports, Durable Orders would usually be the most important. But this market is like a Frog in a Blender right now, if the big economic finger in the sky so much as twitches, the Frog is probably gonna wet himself.
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