Market Bulls Ahead

Market Futures are up before the open on better than expected Same Store Sales from Wal-Mart and Costco (which is exactly where you would expect consumers to keep spending). The Weekly Jobless Claims report was also better than expected with a drop in claims of 18k. I know that I'm beating a drum here, but the economic numbers continue to underscore my theme (and not the "experts") that the economy is not in a recession. Once again, the economy is not hot, but it's not imploding either. And once again, we will probably continue to see churning and grinding economically as consumer spending pings back and forth between the positives (low unemployment and decent business activity) and the negatives (increasing Energy/Commodity inflation and decreasing home price).

7:15 am MT: The Naz is leading the way as usual, with the Naz Futures up stronger than the SPX. If you play a bullish bounce early, then play a Big Tech stock or the QQQQ. But don't get too much or too many, and be willing to take some out before the end of the day. However, the way things are shaping up, it looks more and more like we may see a positive Jobs Report tomorrow, which means that the Naz may move towards new highs. Nevertheless, even as I write this the futures backed way off, which also underscores my theme from the end of yesterday and into today: we are probably getting a tighter, and we may not loosen up (if we do at all) until after the Jobs Report.

I will update the post later in the day, after the market plays out for awhile and gives us any signals.....or not.

8:00 am MT: I'm nibbling in on WMT calls if the stock drops back .25 - .30 cents from here. The Retail sector is leading the charge this morning (RTH), and WMT is leading the Retailers. I might look at one Big Tech play or maybe an ETF like the QQQQ or SMH as well. But I don't think I will do more than 1-2 trades early on at the most.

12:20 pm MT: The market build on its early bullish momentum. I am using the intra-day pullback to buy calls on ESV, FTI, CAM, NUE, and X, in addition to the WMT calls. Retail is leading, Tech is strong, but Financials have come back a bit, and Energy, Steel, Chemicals, and other Commodity-related areas like Coal, Railroads, and other Metals have started to bounce. The whole market, and any individual industry, may not sustain the bounce, but I want to get some exposure in case the market keeps going. I may add to positions, or pick up more Retail and some Tech just before the close.

1:45 pm MT: I bought calls on QQQQ and AMZN, I also nibbled on some POT (take that as you will.....). I have a big bullish bouncer list today, so I'll post some of those later.

10:00 pm MT: I was too busy at work to be able to post this anytime sooner. But here it is anyway.....These are some interesting Bullish Bounces or Breakouts from today:

NUE, RRC, GGB, MT, ENER, MEE, CLF, CAM, FTI, CNQ, JOYG, CNX, APC, INFY, X, NOV, AGU, HAL, POT, ACI, ESV, MOS, NE, HES, ROST, SU, AMZN, WMT, ECA, NKE, BNI, PX, AA, NSC, (MA), UNP, MDY, ETN, FDX, AAPL, CB, SPY, EMR, IWS, QQQQ, ESRX, and IBM

There were quite a few more that I could have listed, but these were the most compelling to me. Also, don't forget to check option spreads before paper trading.

Note: JCG is priming up for a put in a couple of days.

As for the market, this is what I think: Big Money is probably speculating that the Jobs Report (which comes out tomorrow one hour before the open) will not be catastrophic, so they started piling in today. I also think what I have been thinking all year, that we aren't in a recession, that the consumer is holding up, that business is holding up, and that the economy is sort of grinding along. We aren't very bullish, but we aren't dead either. And I think that a stock market that is being led, in part (large part), by Energy and Commodity stocks (i.e. inflationary), is not going to get extremely bullish. I think that consumer spending will be muted by higher energy, food, goods, and transportation costs. So there you have it, more of the same.

That means that if the Jobs Report tomorrow is not catastrophic (less than -40k on the Nonfarm Payrolls), the bounce can carry through for part of the day Friday. If the Jobs Report is pretty decent (less than -20k), the bounce can carry through until Monday. And if the Jobs Report is good (more than +10k), then the bounce can carry through until Tuesday or Wednesday. I expect something in the -10k to -40k range, and the bounce to carry through until Monday.....we shall see.....