Dow: IT Bearish and ST Bearish to Neutral. The Dow dropped into a support zone between 12,200 - 12,300, but it's possible that the index may punch through that area and test the 12,000 - 12,100 area. ST resistance is in the 12,340 area.
SPX: IT Bearish and ST Bearish to Neutral. The SPX broke through ST support around 1,370 - 1,373 and dropped to a minor support at 1,360. The 1,350 area is a stronger support zone, and could be where the SPX is headed. 1,370 - 1,373 is now resistance.
Naz: IT Neutral and ST Bearish. That was a pretty nasty Kicking Pattern (candlestick pattern) on the Naz Friday. It looks like the Naz has a pretty good probability of heading towards support at 2,429 - 2,430
In my estimation, the easiest play by far tomorrow is going to be puts on the SPY if the market wiggles up a little out of the gate. We might get someone yapping something about "oversold" or "upgrade this or that" and get the wiggle. I would look at puts on the DIA as well, and I would target the 1,350 area on the SPX as my exit point.
I'm going to do a concentrated Watchlist, mainly because I'm only going to focus on a few Bullish stocks in a small area. As for puts, I'm mostly focused on the SPY and DIA because a lot of the selling is coming from either overcooked areas, or bullish stocks seeing profit-taking. However, there are a few interesting puts that could still have 1-2 days of selling in them. I'm only putting the most interesting stocks on the list for tomorrow. After tomorrow, I will re-assess, and add to the watchlist.
BULLISH SECTORS/GROUPS AND STOCKS:
Short Index ETF's: SKF, SDS, DXD
Energy: USO, KWK, CHK, CNQ, ECA, XTO, OXY, SU, HES, ESV
Gold: GG, AEM, ABX, NEM
Coal: ACI, BTU
Steel: AKS, STLD, GGB
Note: ABT
BEARISH SECTORS/GROUPS AND STOCKS:
Drugs: JNJ
Transports: UPS, FDX
Defense: LMT, NOC
Financials: GS, PRU, STT, MET, ICE, COF, MS
Retail: JCP, KSS
Leisure/Discretionary Spending: HOT, WYNN
Note: HRS, PH, CMI, RIG, SUN, VLO, CELG (pure Evening Star), KLAC, AMX, ERTS
I answered the rest of your questions from Friday. Sorry it took so long, but I can't always predict how busy I will be on the phones. In fact, the random nature of my work probably keeps me at about 1/3 the trading capacity that I'm really capable of, so I am going to make a comment about that in a moment. For now, all of you should check the last comment to Keith about how you might read Stocks & Commodities, the magazine, if you do. By the way, I do have a subscription, but for a long time I would just go down to the bookstore and flip through it to see if there was any useful info. So don't think that you have to go get a subscription to this or that magazine. Over the years however, I have found the Investor's Business Daily to be, by far, the most useful newspaper. And I have found Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities to be the most useful magazine for interviews and technical analysis info. There are many other periodicals or internet sites that can also be useful, but make sure you keep it under control. Remember that all of these "educational" or "informational" resources are selling a product, and it's not always designed to make you a better trader. However, if you manage the inflow of information to your brain so that you don't blow a fuse, then you can always learn a thing or two, here or there, as you do a little research.
For the next little while I am working on the first video for the other site. I am going to get to the Watchlist and Posture later on. I want to get the video tutorials rolling today. I am also going to give you a heads up on how it's going to work. The site will be free, the education will be free. But I am going to password protect it. The way for you to get in to the site is through a referral program, and I'm going to make it very easy for you. Anyone that refers the Dwight Anderson Family Trading Page to either 3 fellow traders, or 5 other people can get in. I have set up a special (temporary) email address to handle your emails (which I will reveal later). I'm going on the honor system, so if you tell me you did it, then I believe you, and I will email you the password. As far as you emailing me, I really don't have an interest in collecting email addresses, that's NOT what this is all about. So I don't care if you set up a temporary email address just to send or receive an email to me or from me, and then you delete that temporary email service when you're done. I really don't want a bunch of email addresses. I also don't care if you use your full name (for that matter, I suppose you could even use a fake name). You can use just your first name and last initial when you email me, if you choose. In addition, if you have already referred the site to 3 fellow traders, or 5 other people previously, that's fine, I can make this retroactive.
The spirit of the concept is this: what I want to do is to get an idea how many of you out there are still interested in getting more education from me, and I want to expand how many people are following this site. I don't want to do any of this through my own marketing. I don't want any issues with any other organizations. Remember, any of you who found this site, found it on your own, because I have never given out the URL publicly. I want to get an idea of how many people want to continue following along with me, and perhaps expand that a little. I want to get in to a position where I can trade with maximum focus, and I can get you information on trading with maximum efficiency.
Update: I was really overwhelmed by the number of you who gave me such positive comments from the post above, thank-you. Therefore, I decided that I'm going to release the first (practice) video on this site for everyone to check out and give me technical feedback on, rather than on the new site. I was just going to do a simple practice video to test this out, but because of the positive responses, I'm going to put together a nice tutorial on using the TRIN (some of you have been asking about it anyway). Thank-you again for all that you said, and for referring the site to your friends.
Saturday, June 7, 2008
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Dwight,
ReplyDeleteI regrettably missed VC last night to a Tigers game (yawn!).
That lesson from Linda brought something to light, but also reinforced what I've been trying to get through my thick skull. Even is okay! I'm so hard on myself about not "getting it" or "catching on" as I think I should. What's wrong with me? How come I'm not making all the right moves and getting "The Big Score"? I've never had such a hard time understanding something (market). I looked at my accounts yesterday and saw that I was up on a few and even on a few. Whats wrong with even, I ask myself? A few weeks ago, I gave up big gains and I felt that I let myself down. How could I be so stupid? If I can trade in these horrible conditions and break even, I AM AHEAD. I know I'm beating most of my mutual fund returns year to date, thanks to you! But the important lesson I'm learning is discipline. If I can discipline myself to manage risk and break even or make a few bucks in this market, trading a bull market should be no problem. I think a lot of us here struggle with these feelings of insecurity and the uncertainty. The market is so intimidating but you dissect it and show us it's true colors.
Thanks Dwight, for all you do!!
Gary
Sounds like they're going to have to change the report to 49001.
ReplyDeleteI am in for learning from You Dwight I like your style and it suits me best. I don't know how to send you an email except through the other site, but I don't think you want it that way. I have recommended you and your site to at least 5 people and they love it. I am happy to know that there is such a resource as yours for my type of trading. Thank you and I read your advise daily. Glen
ReplyDeleteDwight, I just found your site recently and have referred over 10 fellow traders to it - the service you provide is invaluable to our education. Thanks for taking the time to help us.
ReplyDeleteDwight:
ReplyDeleteAll I can say is thanks.
I look forward to and enjoy passing on your site to fellow traders. I appreciate you showing your hand and helping all of us. I hope that there is something I/we might be able to do for you. (ie: send you a 50 lb bag of wheat, give to one of your favorite charities, etc.).
Thanks also for showing the ins and outs and demonstrating the ability to "turn on dime" in this market-I'm more like a Eisenhower Dollar and some days more like a sand dollar-but I'm gettin' there - especially with your mentoring.
Gratefully,
Robert
CANI
Oh my god, I was going to send you a e-mail but I'm just too excited. I know Linda Raschke. After you mentioned her I went to her website and looked at her photos. I did some skydives with her at Perris, CA. I jump out of airplanes and so does Linda. I have 2400 jumps total. My wife says that it all makes sense now as we have such a high aversion to risk taking. Skydivers love the risk of the market. Too funny.
ReplyDeleteKeith
Dwight, sounds very exciting. I have also referred at least 5 people to this site and to your vc.
ReplyDeleteYes i would love to learn from you and watch you trade for as long as I can. Wich would be a definite win, win for me.
Anyone I talk to about trading I brag to them that I am learning from the best. They doubt me that someone can do that well, especially in this market. Then I explain that you actually show your results in a trading account and make live posts while you are doing it!! A lot different than someone telling you what they made after the market has closed or what they did last week or whatever.
I hope whatever it is that you are doing we can see some sort of webinar setup once and a while and interact with you directly.
Refering people to you and this sight is a no brainer. I check it all the time throughout the day to get a little clarity. So like Robert said, if there is anything else I can do for you let me know.
Good luck and I hope everything works out out exactly the way you want.
Thank you for eveything!
Dwight,
ReplyDeleteYou know I have been checking up on the sunset with you and I would follow you wherever you go...so sign me up! I have referred all my trading partners to this site (some are swing traders and are active posters on this site and others who trade other strategies come to read your market wraps). We all love what you do.
Please let me know what else I can do for you when you are ready.
Dwight
ReplyDeleteI have watched for around a month now and want to be more involved. It is difficult for me as well due to work to accomplish as much as I want. I have given this sight to many of my friends and would love to be more involved with your instruction. Also thanks for making the market easier to understand. It sure is a moody rascal.
This is my first blog ever and I am learning how this all works. I am still not sure how to get the threads of info.
Thanks Again
Stacey
New to your site. Wendi from Idaho told me about it. She told our trader group so that is about everyone I know who trades. I have two others that I will be passing it along to.
ReplyDeleteThank you, Patti
Sounds awesome! Sending out referrals soon.
ReplyDeleteThanks Dwight, for everything.
Dwight,
ReplyDeleteI love your trading page and have been following it for quite some time. You are doing an awesome job of educating all of us. I have recommended your site to other traders in my area.
Thank you
Asha
Dwight - I've enjoyed following your VC sessions for several months and I refer to your family trading page several times during the trading day. Your experience & advice with various market conditions has played a positive role my trading portfolio. I look forward to learning more about your future plans and will definitely refer additional traders to you family trading page.
ReplyDeleteThank you,
Troy
Hi Dwight,
ReplyDeleteI think it is VERY kind that you give back. I mean, you don't know many of us, yet you help and encourage us, not to mention SHARE stocks and information that you've spent alot of time researching. I hope and pray that I will have the ability to do the same for other people someday.
I want to learn how to take my money and REALLY make it work for me and not by buying mutual funds (my mutual fund 's were looking pretty scary on Friday at 4)...
I've highly recommended you to my sons chemistry teacher and my neighbor.
Sincerely, Denise
Hi Dwight,
ReplyDeleteHave been reading between the lines for a while and eagerly awaiting the next "paragraph".
I was recently at a TOS seminar. A handful of us went to lunch and I referred all of them to your blog and VC.
With much sincere appreciation,
Bob
Dwight,
ReplyDeleteYour abilit to read and predict the market hours in advance is uncanny.
I try not to bother you with questions since you get so many. However, I have to tell you that I learned more from you in moments when you showed me a clean pattern of NIHD than I learned in years. I have improved my trading a great deal in the last few weeks and I am making more money.
Now I need to learn breakouts more.
I have been recommending your site and teachings already and will continue to do so.
Thanks
Don
Hi Dwight and trading family,
ReplyDeleteWhat do'yall think of GRMN? It nearly hammered Friday on relatively light volume (considering). The chart sort of jumped out at my after looking at all the shooting stars on my watch list.
THANKS AGAIN DWIGHT!! I love what you do for all us and will refer anyone to follow "Nostradwightus".
ReplyDeleteBob: GRMN should be on your watchlist. I also like the Hammer. I don't think I'll be trading it tomorrow, unless the market really comes to life, but you never know. I think it may come back to front and center if it confirms, I don't want to Cherry Pick GRMN under our current conditions.
ReplyDeleteTo all of you, thank you for the extremely nice responses, and the positive comments.
ReplyDeleteKeith: next time you go skydiving with Linda make sure you get an autograph before you pull the rip chord.....seriously, though, I have the utmost respect for Linda Raschke.
Dwight,
ReplyDeleteIt's about time! It sounds like you might finally be fullfilling your true passion. I have been following you since the beginning: even long before your family page. You are on our calendar every Wed.,Thur. & Fri. I have only missed one of your classes and couldn't wait for you to get back from vacation. I have been spreading the word at every continuing ed class about your time on VC, and now your page. You must have at least "200,000" people reading this page because I've heard you explain how to access it AT LEAST that many times. You have helped me with my trading skills tremendously. The way in which you explain the daily market action keeps me trading when sometimes I wonder if I should be. Thanks so much. You have my support and it looks like alot of others. I could go on and on about how much I look forward to listening to you; but, I think you get the idea... Let us know how we can help. Justin S
I have been following dwight on VC for around 5 months now and it has helped me become a much better trader. I think I learn more from dwight mumbling to himself while he trades then reading books on trading. I have been following the family page since the first day he introduced it in VC when there used to be 2-3 comments daily. Now the community is continuing to grow so rapidly. I refer anyone I know that trades to this page and will continue to do so in the future.
ReplyDeleteDwight, your insight into the market has helped me, and I'm sure many others to lose less and make more money in this volatile market. I greatly appreciate the time and effort you put into educating us and in building this great community of traders to help each other to trade better in these market conditions.
Sung
Dwight,
ReplyDeleteI've not written in before, but I read your comments daily and I love how you approach trading. I 've learned as much from you as I have from classes I've taken with a certain investing educational company. Thanks.
Ditto what everyone has said, but especially bostonbruno. It's one thing to be educated on what to do, but it's a whole 'nother ball game to learn HOW and WHEN to do it effectively and profitably, especially in this market.
ReplyDeleteDA, if I wore hats, I would tip mine to you, sir...
:)
dwight,
ReplyDeleteI been out of town and out of touch for last 4 days glad to be back.just finished reading the family page.I am overwhelmed with gratitude of your desire to teach your stlye of trading to us. this is what I want to master someday.I have currently referred at least 10 fellow traders about you and will continue doing so.please keep up the hard work that you do so well.
sincerely, gary k
Dwight,
ReplyDeleteI have been following your sight for almost a month. I have learned a huge amount from you and I am sure a video or webinar is a great idea. I have a few friends from my old job that trade and I plan on passing along this site as the best. Thanks very much for your insites, Ken B