Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Add a Gap, Pop, and Fade to Your Morning

The White House and the Treasury outlined the spending targets for $250b of the $700b Bailout Bill. Specifically, the government is going to buy banks.....The idea is to restore confidence to the financial system, which has always been one giant confidence game since the government lowered reserve levels and went off the gold standard in the 70's. The good news is that the stock market is responding bullishly once again, after the record setting day yesterday. The bad news is that socializing banks is another step in the wrong direction for capitalism. The best case scenario is that the government divests itself of all private assets over the next ten years (including, and especially FNM and FRE). We shall see.....

I speculate that we will get another gap and pop this morning. But unlike yesterday, I'm looking for a fade during the morning sometime followed by a mid-day consolidation. Then the key will be how we close. I suspect that we will finish the day in the green, but not nearly as big as yesterday. As always, we shall see how price action really plays out.....

17 comments:

  1. Good thoughts to you Dwight!!
    Thanks for your commitment to us!!
    Much appreciated!

    Margo

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  2. Hello All,
    Bought puts on the SPY right out of the gate and played until it filled it's gap and then tech glitches are making me sit back for a few. Whats everyone else doing? Thanks Dwight for all of the extra effort, it really helps.

    Garrett

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  3. Garrett,
    Great job on those SPY puts - looks like we're fading a bit - I have been keeping an eye on MS but it looks like it is loosing some strength - we'll see
    good trading

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  4. Garrett,

    Nice trade! Didn't even consider it.. Looking for calls now, see if we can get a bounce.

    Joe

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  5. is anyone else having trouble with prophet chARTS ON TOS today?

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  6. Yep I'm having trouble with prophet charts. This volatility isn't enough of a challenge so lets make it more lively with lag time, right? Hope everyone is having a good day.

    Garrett

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  7. Yea,Garrett! Good eye for the puts play!

    Question:
    Anybody else having trouble with the Prophet chart itself freezing while the trading grid has the correct price? I have to change to the daily chart from the intraday on Prophet, and even then sometimes it can't read from the server.

    I think TOS must have the platform tabs divided between servers for the trading tab's price to be current. Maybe the problem is a regional thing and none of you is affected! I hope that's the case.

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  8. Is that another triangle on the SPY?

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  9. Laurie,
    On the SPY 5 min chart I think I see what your talking about. Looks like we could be testing it right now.

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  10. Alright I hate to say it but the glitches are making me throw in the towel. I've had to restart 5 times in the past hour and numbers are changing from time period to time period. Hope I don't miss out on a good day. Puttin my thoughts out there for you guys.

    Good luck,
    Garrett

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  11. Hey guys, I have had problems off and on forever with prophet. I called tos and they said prophet is a completely different service with completely different data feeds, but is offered on their platform.

    They said they have to have a much higher standard of data feed or whatever because they are the actual trading platform. So if you can get used to the tos charts they almost never have a problem. They are trickier to use but have similar features. It takes a while to get used to them but now I use both. Alot less frustrating to have tos charts as a backup if nothing else.

    You can also subscibe to outside chart services as well but IO havent bothered.

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  12. Thanks for that input, Steve. I'll check out the Chart with more effort than I have previously. I guess we need to talk to Tim Knight at slopeofhope.com. Prophet's his creation.

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  13. Garrett and Laurie
    the CHARTS on TOS seem to be functioning appropriately

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  14. Hello all
    I have started trading paper money in the FX market using the tools Dwight has been teaching. I find the FX easier to read than even the index etf's. The volatility is lower at present but because of the high leverage, swings produce rapid profit.
    I find simple straight trend lines and diagonal channels give clear signals. I scale into positions and ride the trade to the opposite side of the channel and start scaling out. My paper account is up 40% since I starting trading on Thursday. I am looking at UDS vs GPB, EUR, and AUS. I have already traded each way for at least 10% profit in each of the currencies.
    This market is very interesting!
    Ken B

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  15. Ken, i have heard that fx is much easier to trade with technicals because of its massive liquidity but dangerous because of so much leverage.

    How did you learn about that market in general or how to trade it? Are you trading it on tos?

    I understand that most if not all banks in the world use this market to hedge themselves. Is that market open 24 hours a day with pretty good volume throughout? I guess you can never say you have nothing to do again. Turn on the computer whenever and trade away!

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  16. Steve & Ken,
    I trade Forex now. It's OK.
    Yes, it is trading 24 hours except for Saturdays. You do find yourself up and trading at 3AM, just trying to babysit your FX positions. I learned Forex at the Investools course. It's OK. It is trading just using technical analysis. I use a crossover signal system that seems to work pretty good. I'm not in any FX positions right now as the currency pairs are a bit choppy right now.
    Keith

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  17. SteveC
    I am planning on taking the investools FX class coming up on the 20th. I am trading in paper just to prepare for the class. It is simple technical analysis to triger trades. I am using a single trend line to signal trend reversal to trigger trades. I agree with the 3am trading being possible on a sleepless night!

    Ken B

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