It looks like price action held up just enough in the final hour of Friday to give the market a tailwind this morning. The news will report that it's the global intervention of central banks and governments continuing to pump liquidity into the financial system and the U.S. Fed providing liquidity into the short term funding markets, but the bounce this morning started forming on Friday afternoon.
I wanted price action in the final 15m of Friday to hold up just a little better in order to raise the odds of an intermediate term bottom, but it didn't, so it's still a toss of the coin to me as to whether or not we have the beginnings of an intermediate term bottoming process. However, I do think we have about a 60% chance that it started a short term bounce, which could last until we start getting heavy with earnings. Speaking of which, we will start getting some earnings today and tomorrow, with the peak volatility in earnings coming on Wednesday and especially Thursday morning. So I expect a snap back today, but I'm still taking this day to day.
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Hey Guys,
ReplyDeleteWhat's everyone doing this morning? I'm looking for a pullback in the indicies then I'm gonna pick up some calls.
Joe
Hi Joe,
ReplyDeleteI bought one SPY 95 call when it pulled back a bit. I may add to it depending... I remember Master Dwight said don't trade a dull day. I'm not sure if today qualifies, but with the bond markets closed and for whatever other reason, volume is not that high. Also, I wish I'd known the President was going to speak. No offense to him, but the market often goes south whenever he or Paulsen speaks. Hope your trades do well! Anyone else trading today?
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteI am picked up some calls on the DIA but unless we see movement kind of a flat day so far. Good trading everyone.
Garrett
I bought a call on the SPY. I'm thinking of just doing a .60 trailing stop, but i'm not sure. Does anyone else have success with trailing stops? decisions, decisions...All I know is that i don't want to screw up the trade!
ReplyDeleteI wonder what Dwight is up to?
Bye, Denise
I cant believe this hasn't really pulled back. We may have a 10% gain on the indexes.
ReplyDeleteI bought a call on spy at 95.00 up 5%. Seems like it should be more.
Another strange day in the market. I wonder if the bond markets being closedhas anything to do with the straight up market.
Should be an interesting last hour of the day.
Denise,
ReplyDeleteSorry, I can't help on the trailing stops question, but I bet someone here has used them. I'm usually pretty close to the computer if I'm trading. I know you've got little kiddos and that makes it tricky to follow your trades.
Looks like the vol in the nov spy is down 3% so that has something to do with little % gain in the call.
ReplyDeleteStevec,
ReplyDeleteDo you sense a fade or a rally in the last hour?
Laurie, I have no idea. I do have some meaningful resistance at 97.00 on the spy going back inter day on the 8th and 9th.
ReplyDeleteAfter another " record breaking day " to the upside so far, if we dont break that 97.00 I would think a fade or a stand still til the bond market opens tomorrow.
Just my opnion.
Sold my call and bought puts on q's and spy. Counter to todays trend but not the overall and we are so extended. Tight stops.
ReplyDeleteStopped the puts breakeven. Looks like I said earlier 10% gains. Crazy times!!
ReplyDeleteSteve, thanks for your opinion. I was also inclined to think a fade was in store with the low volume. As Dwight says, "We shall see....."
ReplyDeleteI sold for a .35 profit on the SPY call and left at least that much on the table. I should have stayed in longer as the SPY did punch through my 97 target, but with investors so quick to sell off it made me a little trigger happy. How are you doing, Denise?
Dwight, what now?
ReplyDeleteIt looked like we got some volume with today's huge gains, but even if we hold the gains doesn't the problem with LIBOR and the TED spread remain to be solved?
Wow, what a gain. Wish I would have bought calls last friday! I should have picked up some calls at around 2-2:30 with the slight pullback, but hesitated. It cost me! As it turned out I didn't do anything today.....
ReplyDeleteJoe
hi everyone! did you all profit from your spy trades? I got in the SPY @ 11:41 but got out too early at 15:07 and missed that nice run up. I was suspicious of the bullishness so i missed out on a better gain, but thankful that I didn't lose anything and i walked away with something! I made a grand total of: $55.
ReplyDeleteI've traded the spy 3 days in a row and made a profit each of the days.
THANK YOU DWIGHT!! For teaching us to be nimble and to trade in all market conditions.
Denise
Joe, don't feel the missed out syndrome. I'd rather wait for a return to test the lows and Put the SPY which is after all, with the downtrend.
ReplyDeleteGood luck all and well done to profiters today!
Francis
Thanks, and Happy Thanksgiving, Francis!
ReplyDeleteJoe,
You know there's going to be plenty of opportunity. Who would have guessed the market would behave the way it did? Not I!
Laurie,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the good luck wish on my QQQQ calls it really paid off today. Bought @ .49 sold 1/2 @ 1.18 and will sell into any strength tomorrow... then look for some puts.
Denise,
Trailing stop is just about suicide in this market IMO.
Steve,
With volatility being so high,it held the the trade down. Today's move should have been a 200-300% move in a normal market?
Dwight,
Sold some Oct 110/111 calls for .08 on the SPY to help offset of my 115/114, 109/108, 106/105 (.12) put side of my IC's. Am I on the right track here? Your insight is always appreciated. Looks like those Nov 90 SPY calls worked out for you today too! Dwight and speculation just seems weird?
Good day of trading everyone!
Gary
I guess you flipped a whole stack of burgers, Gary. Congratulations!
ReplyDeleteKudos, to you, Denise, as well. We'll make that 25K one of these days!
Gary, I agree, I bought a 95 call at the end of the 1st hour of trading when the spy was at 95.00. At the close the call was 10.40 (a 40% gain) and the spy was at 101.30 (a 6.65% gain). I sold early but what a rip off that was!
ReplyDeleteLaurie - if we keep hanging out with Dwight, we WILL get there!! It looks like we both exited our spy trades too early, but aren't ya glad that you made something? I hate seeing a loss and we were protecting our capital, attempting to get to 25,000! LOL Oh, I think Krystal had real little ones, I have one that is 8 and another one that is 18. I wonder how she is?
ReplyDeleteIt's amazing the president spoke and the market didn't tank!
Gary - trailing stop is suicide? you're probably right....come to think of it, I don't see Dwight demonstrating trailing stops...I get desperate sometimes thinking of new ways on how keep profits and not give anything back.
I hope Dwight is ok, we haven't heard from him in a while.
Bye, Denise
p.s. I was tempted to keep a spy call but I was too scared of the evening news.
Hey Everyone,
ReplyDeleteI heard Dwight mention a while ago that he usues trailing stops, but definitely not now.
By the way, is everyone trading real in here? I am thinking about going back to real pretty soon, even with the day trading rule.
And oh yeah, I sent the SEC an email today. Of course it won't do anything, just stating my concern with the rule and how fast its become outdated...here's the email address if anyone else is up to it: tradingandmarkets@sec.gov
Joe
Joe, thanks for the email address. I'll send one out and attempt to make a difference.
ReplyDeletei am trading real cash cautiously. In January, I opened up a little acct $3,500....I was trading bull put spreads and did some stupid things and basically blew it up within about 3 mos. I started over in April. It was down quite a bit at one point which was very discouraging but it was lack of discipline!! I was letting losers run and cutting my winners short. I am working hard to break that habit. Recently, i brought the acct back to break even and now i'm up (which is amazing in this market). I'll continue trading 1 contract at a time until i am confident in picking direction AND i've successfully have broken bad habits. My last 3 trades, I traded the spy and made $75 on Thur, $120 Friday and $55 today. I am working on a system and a routine and i'm see improvements more and more. I have seen improvements with trading since I started following Dwight. He is really clear about entry and exit signals and I just love his trading style.
it's a pretty tough market to jump back in to after you've taken time off. Are you sure you are ready to go back in? Do you have a set of rules that you backtested? i wish you the best!!
Denise
Joe,
ReplyDeletewhat day trading rule are you referring to ? Sorry - I missed this I think
Thanks
Dwight,
I got into calss on DIA SPY on Friday and sold them today before close for nice profit just left my AAPL and PEP credit spreads open. Too bad those were all in my paper money account but I was quite happy with my trades today. Also got in and out of MS today with small profit. Thanks to you Dwight I think I'm finally starting to see some results - I feel a lot more comfortable with my entry and exits and am placing my stop order according to sock price of most recent support this is keeping m losses really small and then I am just moving them up as price movement goes in my favor. For now at least, keeping with the intraday charts is really working - THANK YOU
Claudia
Denise and Gang,
ReplyDeleteDwight does have a method for using trailing stops utilizing either the 5 or 10 day MA? I'm sure when the market conditions change allowing us to utilize them, he'll demonstrate it accordingly. Of course, if some of us are running out of our VC subscription, we'll have to hit him up for everything he knows soon!
Take care everyone and trade lightly!!
Gary
Denise,
ReplyDeleteI've been trading paper everyday as much as possible and I'm getting pretty good with it. However, as you know, it's a totally different experience with real money. Also, when you refer to rules, are you talking about, for example, always setting stops, determine what you'll do before a situation happens, giving charts time to develop, spreads, etc...
Claudia,
I'm talking about the 3 trades in a 5 day period if your account is under 25000. When you reach 3 trades, you can no longer make day trades. It really hurts trading because it is LESS riskier in this market to hold during the day, which is why they're outdated already.
Joe
Denise,
ReplyDeleteSorry, didn't mean to sound like I was griping. It's just that I'd like to have the best possible day trades since they are limited to three. I am thankful for the profit, and there have been more of those since Master Dwight has been teaching! I hope he's doing okay, too. I'm thankful he still takes the time to post a.m. for us.
Joe,
Thanks for the email address. We might as well sound our horns - it might do some good! And, yes I do real money, but fairly conservatively. I've never done more than 3 contracts on anything. I'm really focusing on getting my exit signals down. When I exhaust real trades, I go to paper.
Claudia,
Hey, I'd take profits over losses even in paper. Nice trading. I think we all agree that Dwight's diligent example and teaching have been invaluable to us.
Joe,
ReplyDeleteI thought the 3 day trades rule may be what you were referring to but did not want to assume. Yes you are ri
ght on that in this crazy enviroment it is actually less risky to day trade if only we could get the ones in charge to update this. I will join the rest of you and send an e-mail!
Laurie,
Thanks, yes paper money or not I am happy about my results. Even though paper trading and real trading is not quite the same, I have always treated my paper trading account just as if it was real money. This approach has been very helpful and given me more confidence treating both as one - real money.