The drumbeat rolls on.....Overseas markets, especially Asia, slammed down hard again, and once again the U.S. pre-market futures are down big. There continues to be all kinds of gyrations and interventions on the part of governments and central banks world-wide to stem the tide, and once again it looks like the SPX will go and test the 840 - 850 support level. The VIX is set to test historical levels again, and today looks like it will be another barn burner of a morning. It's almost weird getting used to this kind of volatility, but it's the norm these days.....
The potential Double Bottom on the SPX is now fading into a Descending Triangle. Price action is weakening as of the last 5 minutes of Friday, and again this morning. I didn't even bother with a watchlist this weekend because I will mostly be watching the SPY, DIA, and Q's for intra-day swings, and intra-day signals. I could do a lengthy write-up on interest rates, the Fed, economic reports, earnings season, and global financial conditions, all of which will come into play this week. But when there is too much information to process in a market that is living in a sub-routine of panic, there's no point in analyzing the minutia. One thing to remember in all of this madness is that you don't have to trade every single day. At the very least, inexperienced traders will want to tread lightly in the potential whipshaws. As for more experienced traders, just go with the price action intra-day, look for clear signals, be nimble, and wherever it takes us is where it takes us. We shall see.....
Early in the day the market is holding support, which is a good sign. This could be a real back and forth battle for awhile.
9:00 pm MT: Traders faded the Dow over 200 points in the last 10 minutes. The very end-of-day drop was almost identical to Friday and caused new closing lows on the year for the markets. Someone has a sell program 10 minutes before the close, which is very interesting.....
We have the Fed this week, and more earnings and economic reports, but we are now getting close enough to the elections that traders are starting to focus much harder on the polls and what that will mean for the policy going forward. So the market is trying to digest a real grundle load of information.
Monday, October 27, 2008
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Hope all is well with you Dwight. Had family issues to deal with last week-glad to be back.
ReplyDeleteThanks for all you do.
Margo
DIA-Dec $82 call. Made $54.10 after commissions. My goal is to net $50 a day. Learning how to be nimble thanks to Dwight. Lots of losses before. Goal is to trade live by end of year maybe sooner.
ReplyDeleteHappy trading to all.
Margo
Well done Margo!
ReplyDeleteWaiting till end of day to see if worthwhile to get in a SPY of some sort.
Good trading to all!
Francis
I hope that all is well with Dwight and his family.
ReplyDeleteI just have a small position of GLD right now. I don't see anything interesting right now, maybe I'll just add to the GLD position.
Good job Margo!
Keith
Thanks! Support from this blog and watching VC has helped my discpline-waiting is a good thing as we are all learning.
ReplyDeleteMargo
This is fun.... not. bought calls on spy with the break of symetrical triangle at 88.00 went up to 89.25 and the option only went up $65 +/-. Now at 88.50 its a breakeven. Good times! Gotta love vol working against you.
ReplyDeleteWhat a day.. Would have gotten in around 12:30 before the break of resistance and I would have been right, but of course, had class. I really need to get an iPhone! Haha, any of you that have one, think or swim is coming out with software for it at the end of this year, so we can trade anywhere!!
ReplyDeleteHow'd everyone do?
Joe
Wow another weird day! Dwight what happened this time? A pretty nice hold all day then wham, straight down. Crazy !!
ReplyDeletep.s. I think I say crazy to much, but then again if the shoe fits...?
The Kellogg Kid strikes again! Picked up puts on K again today after it failed to move back into the sym. triangle that it broke out of on Friday. Up another 40% today on the trade but holding overnight....suicide? It's the most money I've made in 3 mos so I'm trying to remember how to book profits again. The hit/miss prophet(less) charts don't make it any easier either.
ReplyDeleteGreat job Margo!
ReplyDeleteJoe,
aren't you glad you had class ? :) I think we can just start our trading day 15 minutes before the close!!!
Like Steve says CRAZY!!!
Gary - you are too funny - holding overnight? Me -Yeap, suicide is right on the other hand I need just a sprinkle of your kind of risk aversion :) I hope your bowl is full of Kellogs in the morning ........
I'm getting better with TOS chrts .prophet charts has caused me some problems too over the past week - not been very reliable intraday.
Hi All
ReplyDeleteI too have been experiencing troubles with prophet charts. I was blaming my internet connection till I found TOS charts were working well. Neither chart predicted which way the day was going to end, but the triangle was getting pretty tight by the time it broke out. It looks like it took all day for the futures to get the prediction correct.
Ken B