Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Bounce Day Three

The short term bounce is likely to make one more push this morning. Pre-market futures are up on some more government lending initiatives, but in reality this is simply the finishing out process of the current swing.

Here is a chart of the Dow:
(click on image to enlarge)


I won't be surprised if the Dow takes one more shot at the 8,600 - 8,700 area. The best case scenario in the current swing is a push up to the 8,800 - 9,000 area, but I will be watching for instant selling to come in at any time in the 8,700 - 8,900 area, so I will be scaling out of any call plays if the market reaches into those zones. The more conservative estimate is one more push into the 8,600 - 8,700 area since the Dow has already moved over 1,000 points from low to high in the swing. I had a nice couple of call "paper" trades on the DIA and SPY yesterday that averaged about 20% gains intra-day. I will look for calls again this morning, but more cautiously.

Support is the 7,800 - 8,000 area and then again in the 7,500 area. I'm expecting one last push today before consolidation, so I'm in nimble mode.....we shall see.....
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12 comments:

  1. LaurieNovember 25, 2008 at 6:10 AM

    I appreciate you, Dwight!

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  2. AnonymousNovember 25, 2008 at 6:26 AM

    Thanks so much Dwight.

    'Once more into the Breach dear friends, once more...'

    Good trading all.

    Francis

    ReplyDelete
  3. GatsbyNovember 25, 2008 at 7:43 AM

    Your blog is pretty informational. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  4. AnonymousNovember 25, 2008 at 7:48 AM

    Sold out my GILD $45 calls for a $220 loss. support bounce running out of steam as is the overall markets, plus I have appointments so can't watch.
    Next time I pull the trigger quicker when things don't go as planned; don't like being in repair mode.
    Those emotions again.
    Plenty more trades out there so good profitable trading everyone!
    Francis

    ReplyDelete
  5. stevecNovember 25, 2008 at 7:55 AM

    Got into puts on dia @ 84.85 with the break of 85.00 after Paulsons talk. 1st target 83.75 then 83.00.

    Hopefully today will be a better day!

    ReplyDelete
  6. stevecNovember 25, 2008 at 9:55 AM

    Bought more dia puts off the trendline break with the 5's at 83.70. Today is being much kinder to me.

    ReplyDelete
  7. LaurieNovember 25, 2008 at 1:22 PM

    Steve,
    Did you have a happy put-day? Sorry.

    I got in a SPY put around 9 CDT & sold it at about 11:20 for 12% gain. I bought another at 2:10 and accidentally bought another at 2:40 - got distracted. The only thing I can figure is that I forgot to cancel/replace the first one. Whoops. I've still got 'em.
    So, I'm hoping the market needs to take a break after 3 'up' days.

    How did everyone's day turn out?

    ReplyDelete
  8. stevecNovember 25, 2008 at 1:56 PM

    Laurie, yes I did! 5 put trades with 4 winners and 1 call trade wich was a loser at the end of the day. But my losers were small.

    I shortened my targets and that paid off for me. So no big winners but profitable.

    ReplyDelete
  9. LaurieNovember 25, 2008 at 2:24 PM

    Well done, Steve!

    I tend to like the shorter trades, too. A profit's, a profit. The problem for so many of us is the three trade rule, so that figures into our position selections. I'm glad you had a good day and can be so nimble.

    ReplyDelete
  10. AnonymousNovember 25, 2008 at 4:59 PM

    Well done Steve and Laurie!
    Couldn't do any day trades today so glad to see y'all made out good!

    Hopefully some put opportunities tomorrow.

    Francis

    ReplyDelete
  11. stevecNovember 25, 2008 at 5:44 PM

    Thanks Laurie and Francis. That day trade rule would make me to scared to do any trades. That is just what we need..... more STRESS!

    Have you tried trading spy then dia then qqqq then the iwm? I dont know if that would be possible in how you trade or what not, but it could keep you in the game and they are all market etf's??? Maybe try papertrading them to see if they act the same. Just an idea.

    Anyway, good luck.

    ReplyDelete
  12. LaurieNovember 25, 2008 at 7:43 PM

    Thanks, Francis. We live to play another day. I hope the Henry V quote doesn't apply tomorrow! As Master Dwight says, "We shall see.....

    ReplyDelete

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