The world is watching as U.S. Election Day opens for voting. The overseas markets (Europe, Asia, and Pacific Rim) are all up on better than expected profit outlooks from several foreign companies and a larger than expected rate cut from Australia. In addition, MA reported better than expected earnings and is trading up over 10% before the open. The U.S. pre-market futures are up on all the above news and mirroring the overseas markets. However, we could see some volatility back and forth intra-day as news headlines report early voting results.
Remember that the U.S. market drive the world and we've seen big moves overseas affect our pre-market only to have the U.S. market change course and go where it wants to go. Nevertheless, there are many traders that may want to get the "jump" on what they think the election results will be, and whether those results will be pro-capitalism. That's why I said that every news headline about early election results could put some see-sawing back and forth into the markets today.
If the futures hold up pre-market then the market will make a break to the upside. If the market likes the direction of the early election results then the break will hold and turn into a momentum day and we may see another 1-3 day upswing. As is the norm for the Fall, I will play this one intra-day swing at a time until the uncertainty starts to evaporate.
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Woah! That old chestnut about not trading in the first 30 mins seems to be holding true?!
ReplyDeleteWatching the SPX futures really helped as it dipped on opening whilst everything gapped up.
Still not wanting to go back up above 985 having gone as high as 995 earlier.
Francis
Good trading all!
I watched your S&P futures drop, too, Francis. Thanks for the tip!
ReplyDeleteThe bait may be there, but I'm not biting yet.
Keep your eyes peeled, and don't forget to have fun!
Hey Francis and Laurie,
ReplyDeleteLookin' and watin' also.
I look at yesterdays as "viva la market vida"-living the market life.
This too shall pass!
Happy trading to all!!
Margo
SPY 980 holding support, futures trying to break out above 986 as I type.
ReplyDeleteFrancis
airlines bullflagging... such as UAUA and DAL might be worth a trade if bull flags play out and bounce of higher lows suppport?
Francis
Francis -
ReplyDeletei understand that Futures give one an ideal of how the market will open in the am but I don't understand make sense of what happened this am futures were dipping down and the market opened up? how did you read it such that it made sense to you? I don't get it ........thanks
Margo - I'm right there with you about yesterday - just a day in the past.:)
Laurie,
thanks for the tip - i feel like i keep my eyes glued to the screen all the time and forget to have fun - today seems much better - i got into a SPY call yesterday that i held overnigh, paper money but nonetheless profitable making today much more fun.
good day everyone!
Good on you for your SPY call Claudia!
ReplyDeleteJust keep an eye on the SPX futures as a sort of early indicator of what the SPY might do. e.g. today the futures bounced around 980 and then kept going up and now it's wavering around 1,000 and thus the SPY is also around 100
I'm astounded by the USDX drop which kicked up gold bullion so much. Guess I have to wait till the likes of AEM hit resistance and play a bull flag put if appropriate.
Francis
Thanks Francis but I just don't see how you would have predicted a gap up this am on opening as the futures were up at the time but on their way down - do you just look at the overall position of the futures and because
ReplyDeleteTHAT was up it would indicate a higher open?
sorry i'm just still a bit confused by this . i sold my SPY calls (11:55 and 12:03 EST) for 35% profit .can't remember such a nice gain - if only it were REAL :) not complaining just venting ! :)
yes, I noticed a lot of the gold stocks today - gold too me is like oil - so fickle
Claudia,
ReplyDeleteI have the TOS paperaccount prophet charts up in Grid Mode so that I have the ESZ8 on top right hand corner and the SPY directly below it so I can compare both on the 2 min candle charts.
This am, the ESZ* had already pushed up to as high as 993ish before the SPY opened for trading which had closed yesterday at 97.50 ish so you could tell in advance that the SPY would gap up to catch up.
However, it was interesting to note that the ESZ8 was already coming down from it's earlier highs whilst the SPY opened.
Try setting them both up one on top of each other and observe the price movement comparisons and you'll see what i mean.
hope this helps.
Francis
Well done on your paper profit which is still a win any way you slice it!
Entered a counter trend SPY Nov $100 Put with a target of $95 short term.
ReplyDeleteBanking on election clarified and attention returning to grim matters at hand.
thanks Francis - I will do that and examine it tonight. I appreciate your help with this.
ReplyDeleteHey Claudia,
ReplyDeleteI've been using the 60's lately also to guide my resistance and support areas and it seems those are much clearer than the 30's. Anymore than the 60's seems to be getting too broad.
Didn't do anything today or yesterday, too much work to do. Tomorrow I'm back in though!
Joe
Claudia -
ReplyDeleteYou are GOOD, paper $$ or not!
Margo - Do you still have your call?
I snagged one SPY 100 call late morning and had set a limit order to possibly sell while I was away. It triggered at 2:45 CST. for 9% profit. I wish I'd known to buy earlier in the day but was unsure at that time if the SPY would continue its steady climb (which, after my entry, dropped slightly, leveled, then rallied near the close).
I see now the SPY has punched through the 30dma and pulled back - maybe could have held the position overnight? Though,with election news forthcoming, I didn't want to risk being a victim of tomorrow's possible undertow.
Watched the $TRIN (going South) in addition to following the ESZ08 (going North)today. Until I can get all of my ducks in a row like Dwight, it's good to have some "feelers".