Push Comes To Some Shoving Back

With the early pop out of the gates on Commodities and Energy stocks this morning, I was selling the last of my ACI and CNX, and I sold most of my STLD, all for terrific gains. I am keeping a little of the STLD because it could still run a little more. On CNX I finished with a 36.5% return, on ACI I finished with a 50% return, and on STLD I'm working on about a 31% return so far. Remember, these were all 2-3 day trades (trading days). I am still watching this move to see if it looks like I want to buy calls on the SPY and the DIA.

I am NOT a buyer this morning on Commodity and Energy stocks. They are getting too extended short term. I may be wrong, but I'm OK with that. I've made 6 Commodity and Energy call plays since last Thursday, and made money on every single trade, while averaging about 35% - 40% return. I'm a seller on Commodity and Energy this morning. That's the way it is. Again, I may be wrong, so that's how it goes.

If I do anything in those Sectors, it will be an intra-day nibble on a nice setup, and I will sell within a few hours. I am mostly looking at other Sectors now to see what the next move is going to be - up or down.

I nibbled in on a BG call (break of a Double Bottom), and on some DIA and SPY calls ($SPX breaking out slightly). I don't know how much we have left in the short term move, but another day or two is all I need to make money on those. I also just nibbled on IGT puts, and also APOL, DBA, and MRK puts. I will add to the IGT puts if it rallies to 39.80 - 40.00 intra-day. I am also interested in AEM puts. If we do roll down sometime in a day or two, I can add to the put positions and roll down with it.

I did start a little bit of an AEM put. I added to the DBA puts, and I added to the IGT puts. The market continues to be indecisive in this resistance area. I did also add a little to the BG calls, as it looks like it will hold the breakout just fine.

We finished with our 4th Doji in a row on the SPX and the Dow, and a small Bearish Engulfing on the Nasdaq. The Small Caps ($SML) really look like they want to roll over. This is still a flip of the coin to me on whether or not the major indexes break resistance on this current short term swing. There aren't any really big economic reports this week, and the only big name company reporting is GE on Friday. I don't see a lot of catalysts outside the technical charts. So maybe this week we will get some more normal price swings ahead of the bigger slew of earnings next week.

Here are some notable movers or updates on the day:

I liked the break of a Double Bottom by BG and I played calls. Take KLAC off the bearish list and just clean it off the watchlist for now. DRYS broke a Double Bottom. FLS is very strong, and so are AKS, CLF, MOS, MEE, X, PXP, APA, SII, CF, CHRW, and SWN. I just think all of those are tapped out short term, so I'm not playing them. Insurance is still alive with AOC and TRV (confirmed bounce) being added to the list. NIHD is bottoming out and looks like it can make a higher low off the next pullback. FDX is pulling back, but so far it's fairly orderly.

MGM is close to breaking support. IGT confirmed a Bear Flag (which I played). KSS and ANF confirmed rollovers. HUM is slowly rolling over. VLO is very close to breaking support. Gold may be getting ready to roll over.

There are a lot of indications that the short term swing in Commodity and Energy stocks is about to roll over. I think it will be tough for the major indexes to break resistance right now without them. We need Financials, Tech, maybe Retail, and one or two other areas to make a strong move up tomorrow if the market is to overcome a rollover in the Commodity and Energy stocks - and break out. Otherwise we could roll down. I'm still in the toss of a coin camp right now, though, so I'm comfortable with the call and put positions I took today. I have more puts, I suppose because I'm leaning that way a little more.

We shall see.....