Stock Market Still Stuck In Neutral

The stock market got better than expected Weekly Jobless Claims but worse than expected March Same-Store Sales in the Retail sector. An upgrade of Intel and a drop in crude oil prices tipped the balance in favor of the bulls this morning. Retail actually caught a tailwind because two big stores beat expectations - WMT and COST. Now this is very interesting to me. This is EXACTLY what I expected and predicted if the consumer went a little tighter with their wallets. People are spending at the two stores that they get the best bargains for food and supplies. They are not spending as heavily on discretionary items, which you find at stores like JCP and ANF. So higher gas prices and some softening in employment, offset by the uncertainty - but possibility of good corporate earnings next week, and the anticipation of the positive effect of rate cuts just around the corner, continues to keep the market consolidating.

As for my three puts from yesterday. If the Dow clears the 12,650 highs just set on the 60m charts intra-day, I will stop my DIA and SPY puts. If JCP clears 41.00, I will stop out. IGT is just fine, but I may nibble out some profits. APOL may be making a run for the 20 day moving average, and I don't want it going much above 50.00. The market continues to slosh and chop as it positions ahead of Earnings Season next week.

Here is where I take a big SIGHHH.....and say, the market just hasn't been much of a trading vehicle this week. I have chipped at it here and there with little trades to see if I can catch something, but nothing is materializing. I can always tell when I get into these conditions because I will take 6-8 small losses and some scratch trades. We might roll over intra-day, but I will probably use the rollover to lighten some of my positions. It really appears that the market is "desperately bullish" and doesn't want to do ANYTHING significant until we get a bunch of corporate earnings on the books. And even beyond that, the market may not want to trend until traders see the effects of the interest rate cuts that started last September. We may get a trend starting out of Earnings Season, but we may have to wait a week or two for the signs to even begin. For now, it's the same old chop and slop since the beginning of the year. I have made good money in the Chop Market, but I have to work harder, be more nimble, and stay patient.

Here are some stocks that are in Bull Flags that may confirm a bounce today or may end the day with a Hammer: ESI, SWN, GME, CELG, GILD, SLB, ICE, QQQQ, PAYX, WMT, FWLT, and PRU. Also, RIMM is in a variation of a Bull Pennant that might confirm.

Most traders will be watching GE tomorrow morning, and perhaps some of our resilience is Big Money anticipating a great earnings report from GE. Unless GE blows us away, the market may react a little (up or down) and then go back to chop ahead of the weekend. There aren't any big Economic Reports tomorrow, so we may be in for a dull Friday as well.

The market just dropped as I was writing this, so we are getting a little bit of a rollover. I will look to scratch out (breakeven) of my DIA and SPY puts.

Just a final note on today. Those of you who stopped out of JCP, APOL, MRK, or even the DIA and the SPY puts today, that's OK. Keeping it a little tighter in this chop and slop is just fine. A lot of times I will go tighter than 1% above highs and lows when I smell that everything is all wrong. Perhaps I have been in this garbage market for so long that my nose is getting used to the smell.....As it is, I may be stopped out of most of my puts tomorrow anyway. Even if we get a bad earnings report out of GE, I am not looking for a big drop. Traders are still too desperately bullish, and they most likely will hold out for more big-name corporate earnings next week. And even if we get terrible corporate earnings and the market sells-off, I still think the market will battle with the January and March lows for two reasons. One is that traders will still hold out hope for positive news from the rate cuts that started in September. The second reason is that the market has been Pavloved at those levels by the intervention games of Benny and the Feds.

We'll see what GE does to things tomorrow.....