Here is my watchlist for the upcoming week. I have included a market posture as well. I indicate stocks and sectors that are beginning to go intermediate term (IT) bullish or bearish in parenthesis. I indicate stocks that are IT bullish or bearish in a normal font. And I indicate stocks or sectors I'm most interested in because of where they are short term (ST) in a bold font. The bolded stocks are closer to buy signals, or they are extremely compelling because they could be high probability setups soon.
Dow: IT Neutral Neutral and ST Bearish. The Dow is sitting above ST support at 12,200. A break below 12,200 would change my posture to IT Neutral to Bearish and set the stage for a possible re-test of the January and March lows (hereafter known as the Bernanke Pavlov Zone or BPZ).
SPX: IT Neutral Neutral and ST Bearish. The SPX is sitting above ST support at 1,315 - 1,325. A break below 1,315 would change my posture to IT Neutral to Bearish and set the stage for a possible re-test of the BPZ.
Naz: IT Neutral Neutral and ST Bearish. The Naz is sitting above ST support at 2,256 - 2,279. A break below 2,256 would change my posture to IT Neutral to Bearish and set the stage for a possible re-test of the BPZ. I would be highly surprised if traders took the Naz below 2,256 before INTC announces earnings (on Tuesday after the close, or in other words, before Wednesday morning).
If the market indexes bounce on Monday, or more likely Tuesday, (if they hold supports and bounce), then it will probably be a speculative rally ahead of INTC's earnings, and perhaps JPM's earnings Wednesday morning. I anticipate Wednesday of next week to be the most volatile trading day of the week, unless earnings come in really ugly, and then Thursday and Friday will be volatile as well.
BULLISH SECTORS/GROUPS AND STOCKS:
Steel: X, STLD, (ATI), AKS, MTL
Metals/Mining: ANR, CLF, WLT, POT, (RIO), FDG, BHP
Copper: FCX, PCU
Chemicals: MOS, CF, APD, (MON), TRA
Energy: UPL, USO, PXD, PXP, RRC, RIG, APA, DVN, NE, NOV
Coal: ACI, CNX, MEE
Railroads: CSX, UNP
Transports: (FDX), CHRW, (EXPD)
Materials/Construction/Manufacturing: MDR, (CAT), PH, FLR, CBI, (VMC)
Tech: RIMM, ERTS, AAPL, FSLR, BIDU, (ADBE), (KLAC)
Electronics: SPWR, STP
(Biotechs: GILD, CELG)
Conglomerates: PPG
Exchanges: ICE, (NYX)
(Homebuilders: RYL, TOL, DHI)
Some Financials: PRU, AOC
Some Retail: NKE, WMT, (AMZN), GME
Utilities: this group is strong, but option spreads are too wide, just like the REIT's
Note: BA is holding its breakout for now
BEARISH SECTORS/GROUPS AND STOCKS:
(Gold: NEM, GDX, ABX, AEM, GG are right at ST supports, a break through might drop them another day)
HMO's: AET, HUM
Hotels & Casinos: (HOT), MGM, (LVS), WYNN
Some Cyclicals: WHR, (UTX), XLI
Some Retail: JCP, IGT, ANF, (TGT)
Some Financials: LEH, MER, LM, BAC, PFG
Some Drugs: MRK
Some Education: APOL
Some Energy: VLO, (SUN), (MRO), (HES)
Note: FWLT has broken an uptrend line
One Note of Caution - Repeated Again:
We are entering the heart of Earnings Season, and it will probably get volatile. So I am repeating what I wrote Friday about how I'm looking at the week, at least until Wednesday.
The Dow, SPX, and Naz all broke diagonal support and are getting close to short term horizontal supports. The Dow has horizontal support at 12,200, the SPX at 1,315, and the Naz has a support zone between 2,260 - 2,280. I wouldn't be surprised to see the markets drop a little more on Monday and test those areas. I also wouldn't be surprised if those areas hold short term until we get the INTC numbers after the close on Tuesday, and the JPM numbers before the open on Wednesday. I will stay with my puts through Monday, for now, barring any signals from the market to do otherwise.
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A solid list again. Thank you !
ReplyDeleteDwight! I couldn't stop laughing at BPZ. The visuals are hilarious. First it's Benny and the Feds in Liberace-wear rocking to Elton John. Next Benny with 80's hair and tight vinyl pants rocking to Van Halen. And now Benny salivating at the sound of the market's opening and closing bell. Thanks for the chuckles.
ReplyDeleteOK, back to business. What do you think of the flag set up for a call on EBAY? And thanks for your list.
Dwight, on stocks like fcx, pcu, rio, and mon, which are hitting resistance from 1 to 3 months ago, what time frame do you consider? Only the most recent higher hi's and higher lows? When does older resistance come into play? The investools teachings of even going back 1 year possibly and waiting for a breakout of that older resistance is that basics or old school?
ReplyDeleteThanx again for the family page. I find myself checking for updates all the time throughout the day. The more the better!
Dwight:
ReplyDeleteLove the market and trading psychology (and the watch list).
I see I'm going to have to go back to my Psych 101 class and get up to speed on the new terms (ie: Bernanke Pavlov Zone or BPZ).
Maybe you could post some your "Dwightism" and the definitions:
Such as squirrelly market (SM), chop and slop (sns)etc in the education section.
Thanks much for the overtime!
Appreciate your efforts.
Robert
CANI
Hi Dwight,
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking about entering ANR around 47 tomorrow if it closes below Friday's low. Which interday chart should I be focusing on the most to enter this trade? Any tips or strategies that you've found most helpful when using interday charts will be most appreciated.
Thanks in advance!
--Yvette
Hi Dwight,
ReplyDeleteWhat circumstances should I be looking at interday charts for entry points?
--Yvette
P.S.
ReplyDeleteCould you give me your criteria for when you use interday charts?
Yvette & Anonymous,
ReplyDeleteI just started using the inra-day charts where I will identify support/ resis. on the 5 day/1 day charts (as you would on alonger term chart). It was invaluable Thursday when I watched BG hit resis. @ 104, bounce off the 30day ma, then went on to break 104. I was pretty sure the opportunity to sell in the high 104's was approaching... there was a nice window to sell and I did. Take a look at the activity on those charts and you can see what I mean. Thanks Dwight for your insight.
Good luck, we're all learning together.
Gary
Christina: EBAY Bull Flag looks good so far, potential support around 30.50
ReplyDeleteSteve: long-term resistances are important, so those stocks are on my bullish list, but not a buy yet.
Yvette: ANR is on my key bullish list, I'm targeting 45.00, or wherever it goes when the market gets to ST support. Use the intra-day charts for patterns in target areas. If you see reversal patterns or continuation patterns intra-day in key areas on the daily charts, then pull the trigger.
Gary: it looks like you're getting the hang of how to use the intra-day charts in conjunction with the daily charts (BG resistance was 105.00)
I am a faithful follower and fan! The best part of listening to you is mixing fun and learning trading skills all at the same time it's a win-win. I'm so amazed that you trade without technical indicators and just price and volume perhaps that will be me in about 10 years but for now I will enjoy my fast and slow stocatics. Thanks for all that you do for new traders!! Denise : )
ReplyDelete