Today is completely devoid of news. Any activity will probably be on lighter volume, which means another drifter day. Price action slowed down on Wednesday, which is what you would expect from Christmas Eve.
Here is a chart of the SPX:
(click on image to enlarge)
(click on image to enlarge)
The market is Intermediate Term Neutral and Short Term Bearish to Neutral. A move above 875 means that the Bulls are probably turning the market north for a few days. A drop below 860 and the Bears are probably headed to 850. A drop below 850 and the Bears may take the market for a ride back down to the 820's. Wednesday was a Narrow Range Day, both an NR7 and an NR4 Inside Day, but I'm taking that with just a little grain of salt because of the light volume. As per our Holiday Trading, I'm not looking for much excitement today. However, activity will probably pick up just a little bit from Christmas Eve.
11:55 am MT: Intra-day Update: This is a mini-tipping point intra-day. If the SPX can rally above 869 again on the 10m - 15m charts then it may take another shot at the 873 - 875 area. The more consistent upward pressure the Bulls can maintain on the market, the more likely that the 865 - 867 area will hold for the day, which is just above a Common Gap on the SPY. If we can get a Rounding Bottom off the gap or a Channel Break on the intra-day price action, then 875 is possible.
11:55 am MT: Intra-day Update: This is a mini-tipping point intra-day. If the SPX can rally above 869 again on the 10m - 15m charts then it may take another shot at the 873 - 875 area. The more consistent upward pressure the Bulls can maintain on the market, the more likely that the 865 - 867 area will hold for the day, which is just above a Common Gap on the SPY. If we can get a Rounding Bottom off the gap or a Channel Break on the intra-day price action, then 875 is possible.
Here is a current 15m chart of the SPX:
(click on image to enlarge)
(click on image to enlarge)
Today has all the characteristics of another drifter day, so I'm not exactly starting a parade.....Most of the price action is fairly narrow and fairly subdued.
Thank you Dwight, for being a guiding light for us. My appreciation goes out to all who contribute to this blog. Ilona
ReplyDeleteHey Dwight,
ReplyDeleteWhy would a move above 875 mean an upward move for a couple of days? It looks like 880 is a more significant level..
Joe
Joe: Because I called the NYSE and told them so...
ReplyDeleteSeriously though, that clears the short term downtrend line and enough above the highs of Wednesday. It's an experience thing...
It looks like the channel break took us to 873.74, so that 875 area was a good target. I didn't think traders would have the motivation on a day like today to go beyond 875.
Thanks Dwight. I saw the break of the downtrend line but didn't want to act too early today. Channel break was nice, but I think I'm going to just watch and trade paper until next week is over and people start getting back into things. Hope you had a good Christmas!
ReplyDeleteJoe
Dwight,
ReplyDeleteWow, nice call on the $SPX! It played out exactly when it closed outside the channel. I held that AAPL put and tightened my stop to 86.27 and yep, I was stopped out by a penny later in the day..oh well! I bought a WMT call at diagonal support as it seems to be holding its own in retail. We`shall see!