Yesterday's price action was full of mood swings with the Bulls showing up in volume throughout the day. That means that, as usual, the market is still a tough read that requires nimble trading and strong discipline. I had two nice 9% put "paper" trades intra-day yesterday, and I will probably be looking at puts again today. But I won't take my finger off the trigger because of the erratic nature of the price action.
Here is a chart of the SPY:
(click on image to enlarge)
(click on image to enlarge)
The SPY (and SPX) is set to gap open right about where it gapped open yesterday. I speculate it will stake a quick stab at the two-day lows at about 82.00 (820 area on the SPX). From there, a break of 81.75 probably means a drop to 79 - 80. If the market recovers off the gap down this morning and clears yesterday's high then it is likely headed for 87.50. I'm still looking for the swing down to reach a little further so I will be looking for puts, but I'm staying nimble today just like yesterday.
Hi folks,
ReplyDeleteJust thought I would drop a note of the puts I am looking at today.
MEE
QCOM
MO
All look like they could have a nice drop if the market continues this squishyness.
Any thoughts are welcom.
Good trading to all.
Don
Great trade yesterday Gary . Yes Margo, Joe and Laurie I know the feeling. I did ,however, stay in the SPY put from yesterday overnight and sold on the gap down this am - made up for most of my loss yesterday and ended up with 4% gain. Happy about that. Today - I think 'll do as Dwight says stay real close to being trigger "no-and-if's-or-buts" set.
ReplyDeleteGood trading to all
Claudia
Well done Claudia! I'm looking for a set up that I can trade for days rather than hours, you did good on that put!
ReplyDeleteAll the best to everyone with your swings, wherever you grab the vine and let go!
Francis
Right, Claudia! Nice recovery.
ReplyDeletePulled the trigger and sold my SPY put from Tues. 5 min after open for just under 8% gain.
Celebrate, Gary! You've got good reason. So, do you just alternate days playing calls and puts on APOL?
Be nimble, traders all, from one who wasn't nimble enough, yesterday!
Much celebrarted success to all of you!!
ReplyDeleteI am waiting for Dwight on VC and then see after that.
Thanks Dwight for each morning postings!
Happy trading to all!!
Margo
Thanks for the cuddos everyone!!
ReplyDeleteLaurie,
No, calls only on APOL. As you can see it's pretty volatile and sooner or later my luck may run out, then it will probably be a pretty big sell off. I'm also watching DV to confirm an inverse H/S. I'll ask Dwight today on VC.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteDid you look at the spreads on DV?
Hey Guys,
ReplyDeleteGot in puts this morning when the 5's started to drop after the bounce and stopped out soon after. My mistake today was not looking the longer frames and realizing we were making a higher low right in line with the upward trendling. Big mistake..
Looking to enter calls when we get a pullback on the 30's.
Joe
Couldn't make VC today; any summaries or highlights would be appreciated if you wouldn'tn mind sharing; thanks.
ReplyDeleteFrancis
Hi Francis -
ReplyDeleteIn VC, we mostly watched the SPY trade in its narrow range for the time period, and looked at a few stocks; however, we have a new site to check for a macro view of Big Money's behavior. It's cftc.gov - Commodity Futures Trading Commission that was queried by a student. The site posts a report on Fridays for all commodities.
At the site choose: market reports>short format>S&P>commercial. You can see the number of longs and shorts that are held by the big guys. Dwight noted that on Dec. 24, '07 Big Money went net short and in Jan. the uptrend on the market was broken. I'm sure he'd go over it again if you ask him.
Dwight also said traders seem to be comfortable trading within the 8000 - 9500 on the Dow for the time being.
Gotta go!
Thanks Muchly Laurie,
ReplyDeleteMost informative.
Hope all are doing well today.
I accumulated another 100 shares of HGU on Toronto TSX, this is a Horizons Beta Pro Gold ETF that is 2X bullish.
Have to keep my Cannuck Pesos working as well as US$ trading money!
Francis
Hey guys
ReplyDeleteMCD might be a worth watching. It broke an ascending triangle today but not on 150% volume. The volume trends do look pretty good. It had a nice bounce out of a flag with horizontal support at 59.30.
As alway, we have to wait to see but might be one to keep on radar.
Chic
Nice looking MCD Chart Chic!
ReplyDeleteBack above and a significant close above the 200day MA.
a break and close above $60 resistance ( also the 50% fib retracement from year highs) would also be a good confirmation.
Plus fundamentally and anecdotally, would it be true to say more will dine at the Golden Gates to save some bucks?
Appreciate your sharing.
Francis
Laurie,
ReplyDeleteYes, I saw the spreads on DV. Expecting the breakout of the inverse H/S, I was going to trade the stock on such a big move. Sorry, I guess I wasn't clear on my intentions.
No problem, Gary.
ReplyDeleteI just know I've spent time examining charts only to discover the spreads are too wide for my consideration. Back in early spring, before Dwight, I traded one time when the spreads were .50 and thought I got a good deal when I got in at .20 below ask.
The difficulty was that even though the stock made a big move, the Market "devils" didn't up the bid but maybe a dime. Never did that again. Maybe it was an anomaly, but I won't do wide spreads.
Good trading on Thursday!