Wednesday, December 17, 2008

The Consolidation After the Adrenaline Rush.....

Pre-market futures are down more than I expected, but not enough to surprise me anymore in this market. Once again I'm glad I locked and walked on a nice profit intra-day (yesterday) and didn't hold overnight. There isn't any specific catalyst to the morning, but MS is down a bit after posting earnings this morning - which may be a consolidation of yesterday more than anything. In fact, the whole market looks like it wants to lay down for a bit after the rock concert yesterday.

Here is a chart of the SPY:
(click on image to enlarge)


I don't want to buy calls if the SPY goes much below 90.00, so we'll see if we get a fourth gap down and pop in the past two weeks. For now, I am going to take things cautiously this morning. I was looking to go in just a tiny bit heavier this morning, but with the futures down this much, I'll treat today as I have much of the past couple of months. Still, if the SPX can overcome the gap, it has a chance to rally into the 9,400 - 9,500 area. As always, we shall see.....

I posted a watchlist yesterday, and some notes on my schedule this week.

5:00 pm MT: Market Wrap: Today was a pure consolidation day. It looks a little Harami Cross-ish on many charts, which I don't like. However, using the SPY as a market proxy, as long as SPY holds above the mid point of yesterday's long day and also above today's low - both in the 90.00 area - then the market has a chance for another leg up in the current upswing. So I'm cautious on calls on a drop much below the 89.75 - 90.00 area, and I'm bullish on calls on a move above 92.50 that would open the door for a move to the 95.00 area.

Here is a chart of SPY:
(click on image to enlarge)


Here is a list of strong Bullish Movers in addition to the Watchlist from yesterday (some of these stocks are from yesterday's list). Also, yesterday's list is still in play for me as well.

Tech/Alternative Energy: FSLR, SPWRA

Materials/Construction:

Energy:

Cyclicals: WHR

Retail: DLTR

Financials: BEN

13 comments:

  1. It's quiet on here today! I'm looking to enter some calls on DIA with a move over 90. And I'm still in my calls from yesterday. What's everyone else doing?

    Joe

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  2. Hey Joe,
    Dwight was covering for Dave on AT Capstone. A lot of us were listening. Now, Dwight's on VC - Said he got some paper calls on the SPY and DIA, but is floating to sell.

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  3. I think he's got two positions in the SPY and DIA and is selling one each...

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  4. Thanks Laurie, I appreciate it!

    Joe

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  5. Hi Joe,
    Guess you're still waiting for the 90 breakout in the DIA's.
    I added 1 more contract to my WMT mar $55 calls.
    Still basing around the $55 area.

    AEM and GG looking like shooting stars; patiently waiting for a retracement which may be short and sweet so have to be nimble to catch the end of a Bull flag hopefully.
    FRancis

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  6. Francis,

    Did you see SUN? Great pick my Dwight, geez. I think I may actually get in this with a pullback for a run up to 45, what do you think?

    I hope WMT works out. You taking it to 57?

    Joe

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  7. Nice to see people posting again.

    Caught a nice run in SPY for a quick 8% gain. Wish I held a bit longer.

    Francis, I was thinking the same thing on the gold stocks. Maybe cherry pick the flag on the way down for a quick bearish play then look of a bullish flag run up.

    I was not able to see the AT or the VC today, so if anyone has good notes, please post them.

    Good trading to all.

    Don

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  8. Great Capstone, Dwight! Thank you, Ilona

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  9. Joe,

    I picked off SUN too! I also have GILD but it really pulled back today and maybe should have sold. Had a nice pick off on IWM that may go down the tubes. I'll probably be a victim of holding over night? we shall see...

    Francis,

    Good luck on WMT. Why are you buying so much time? It's (time bought)is killing me on MCD right now.

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  10. BTW,

    Great to see everyone on the Capstone today. That was fun and I think we may have even picked up a few newbees?

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  11. Hello DwightMates, sorry been out all day...
    Wasn't aware of SUN so good luck Gary with that. I agree Joe to wait for a pull back.
    If it's oil, I'm watching SU actually for signals that it's bottomed and coming out of it.

    Gary, suppose I could have bought January but DEC expiry is coming up so then I would be into the front month so March it was.
    Besides, this is intended to be a days/week move so I didn't mind paying and I noted that Avg Impl Vol was dropping.
    Just my 2 cents.
    Francis

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  12. Hello DwightMates, sorry been out all day...
    Wasn't aware of SUN so good luck Gary with that. I agree Joe to wait for a pull back.
    If it's oil, I'm watching SU actually for signals that it's bottomed and coming out of it.

    Gary, suppose I could have bought January but DEC expiry is coming up so then I would be into the front month so March it was.
    Besides, this is intended to be a days/week move so I didn't mind paying and I noted that Avg Impl Vol was dropping.
    Just my 2 cents.
    Francis

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  13. Thanks for the market wrap, Dwight!

    Is the reason you don't like the harami-cross because it indicates indecisiveness or does its appearance bode something more ominous to you?

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