The SPX is tightening a little, and could stay range-bound between 885 and 915. If the Bears take the SPX down through 880 then the upswing is probably done and the market could crunch for a bit down into the 850 area, or lower into the 820 area. A break above 920 would open the way for a move to 950 and a confirmation of the mini Reverse Head and Shoulders. That would also open the door for another swing, on a second stage, back into the 1,000 area.
Here is a chart of the SPX:
(click on image to enlarge)
(click on image to enlarge)
The SPY, which shows the market gaps, is in an Upside Tasuki Gap formation, which is bullish. The SPY needs to hold the gap above the 87.50 area (which is about that 880 area on the SPX) in order to maintain the pattern. A drop much below the 87.50 area and the SPY could consolidate back into the 82.00 area. So I want to see the SPY hold the 87.50 area and the SPX hold the 880 area (giving it a little wiggle room) in order to still look at calls in the current upswing.
Here is a chart of the SPY:
(click on image to enlarge)
(click on image to enlarge)
The Naz is in a bullish Side by Side White Lines pattern, which is just a stronger variation of the Upside Tasuki Gap. In fact, a lot of stocks are in some variation of the Candlestick Gap Contiuation Patterns. So this market has reached a tipping point. If it drops through the gap then the current upswing is probably over, at least for another day or two of consolidation. If the market holds and consolidates the gap another day, then it builds up some nice bullish pressure. And if it pops the pattern we could see a 1-2 day upswing continuation into the end of the week. The odds favor the bulls slightly as long as we hold the gap - that's your tipping point.....
Wow, it's been quiet on here lately. We held yesterday's lows today and looks like we could be forming a double bottom on the intraday charts. Waiting for break high or low, until then I'm out.
ReplyDeleteDwight, did you really do anything today?
Joe
Joe,
ReplyDeleteYes, I think we're all in awe trying to figure out this rally and how long it will last? I personally think we're being set up for the big sell off. But sometimes it's a little quiet on Wednesdays when we can talk to Dwight on VC during the day. I, myself am a little frustrated (disappointed) with my trading lately, so I may not post until evening. Hope your trading is going well!
Sorry, Joe,
ReplyDeleteI noticed that posts have been sparse of late. It's a busy time of year. You're probably past finals(hope they went well!)and have some time available to hone your trading skills. I haven't been trading (therefore no posting), but I check in periodically to keep current.
I've had some family issues to deal with that began just prior to Thanksgiving. I had to move my in-laws (within town, in answer to your question, Gary) and have been getting them settled in their new place. In the midst of the move my father-in-law who was already disabled broke his hip. He's better now but still in rehab.
I'll be back when things are calmer, but I'm with you guys and gals in spirit in the meantime!
Gary,
ReplyDeleteDon't worry about the slump. You can't help those kinds of things and personally I'm in one right now too! Who knows whats gonna happen with the market. Hopefully we keep pushing up.
Laurie,
I haven't been trading much lately either. As you mentioned, I'm dealing with finals right now and that's a bit of a hassle (but they are easy compared to the market we're trading in!). I wish the best for your family and the market will be waiting for you when you come back!
Joe