Jobs Report is Nasty Bad But Market Comes Back

The Employment Report came out with a Non-farm Payrolls loss of 533k for November, which was much more than the 320k expected. In addition, October was revised down from 240k to 320k. The Unemployment Rate came in at 6.7%, which was slightly better than expected. Pre-market futures shot down right after the report, but have since recovered some of the losses. European markets are down as well.

It appears that a shocking, catastrophic Jobs Report number has been somewhat priced in to the market. So traders will probably take the market down a bit today, which will be part of a technical move, but it doesn't appear that traders are going to implode the market off the bad number this morning.

Here is a chart of the SPX just after the open:
(click on image to enlarge)

You can see that the SPX is narrowing down in range. Today's early move will probably head down towards the 815 area, but the selling has not been horrible. If the SPX drops through 815, then it is likely headed towards the 790 - 800 area. If the market turns around, then the SPX is likely headed back towards 875 - 885. Bulls may try to make a push today, but there just doesn't appear to be anything that will give them a sustained tailwind. I speculate the market will tighten at best, and sell-off at worst. That means that if you look at any Bullish trades today, stay nimble. It may be that the market pushes and crunches for awhile this morning. I'm guessing that the best signal of the day will be a lower high on the 30m charts on the SPX, the second best signal of the day will be a break-down of the 832 area, and the least likely, although possible signal will be a strong move back up above 855 - 857 that opens the door for a move to 875.

12:15 pm MT: Intra-day update: Well, it looks like it was door number 2, which was a break-down through the 832 area and a move right into the 815 area. I speculated above that we would see the 815 area in the morning, which is what we got. We also got a double-Hammer support bounce off that 815 area on the 10m charts and a move up intra-day. At this point I want to see if the SPX will make a higher high on the 10m charts. I speculate that the Bulls will hold the line until the trend breaks on the 10m charts.

Here is a chart of the SPX showing the intra-day bounce right off the support line that I posted earlier:
(click on image to enlarge)


Here is a chart of the SPX showing the 10m chart trend that needs to break before the Bulls are done intra-day:
(click on image to enlarge)

I won't be surprised to see some weekend selling before the close, so continue to stay sharp right into the end of the day. We'll see how this closes.....