Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Wiggle Bounce Early

Pre-market futures are up early on a relief bounce, or wiggle, from yesterday's huge sell-off. There's a little blah blah blah in the news that the elevator analysts are using as fodder to explain it away, but mostly this is just a technical counter-move off yesterday's price action.

Here is a chart of the SPY:
(click on image to enlarge)


Translating the SPY to the SPX, here are the numbers: the next support down, short-term, is in the 800 area. A breach of 800 could lead to 775, and then the 750 area. If I play puts on the wiggle, I don't want the SPX (or the market) going above 850. The next big economic number will be the Employment Report on Friday. We'll see if we get a wiggle and drop this morning or a whipsaw. Another day, another volatile market.....

14 comments:

  1. Dwight,
    I enjoyed your commentary on the Cast. I hope they have you on more often.

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  2. Well, from what Dwight says and the way the SPY's going today, seems it 85 proves to be resistance, that would be the strike to Put, if indeed that area confirms to be a lower high from which it goes further down with a target area of 75.
    Am I seeing things right?
    Would love to hear what others are seeing, thinking!
    Good trading all.
    FRancis

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  3. Hey Francis,

    Yeah, the zone from 84.50 to 85.50 is resistance. Ultimately, a move above 85.50 would be call area. Right now we're coming up on 84.50, and if we start getting higher lows and highs on the 5's I'm in puts in a heartbeat. I'd say a target of 80, then 77.50, then 75. All those areas could cause us to turn.

    Joe

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  4. excellent Joe, thanks muchly!
    Seems like overall markets don't want to go down yet.
    Francis

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  5. Just entered puts on the break of 8350 (83.50) with a stop at 8450 (84.50). See how this works out. I'm seeing the day today as consolidation from yesterday's drop.

    Joe

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  6. Hey all,
    Had to get my baby blues checked this morning so am a little late starting.
    Joe, I'm in too. Bought an 86 SPY put just after 11 CST; good so far.

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  7. Joe,

    I did the same. I cherry picked a couple contracts at 84.50 and then added at 83.75.

    I have not made a trade in the last 5 weeks. Work has been crazy.

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  8. DaySwingTraders dream for the SPY today, too choppy for me to trade but all the best to those who are swinging it today!
    Francis

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  9. Hi All,
    Joe, Laurie got into SPY put at about the same time when it hit resistance at 84.50 - maybe I should have gotten out at the turn around at 82.50 but I am still in - we'll see.
    Yes, Francis - it sees to be pretty uch a day trading kind of enviroment - how I look forward to something a little bit longer
    Good day all
    Claudia

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  10. Right on Francis-Swing time!! No other comment-guess what kinda day I had???? Shoulda' sat on the porch today-LOL


    Tomorrow another chance!!

    Margo

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  11. I know how you feel Margo. Trade was looking great and should have exited at 81.50, but held it and left the computer. Came back to see me stopped out and market up 270. Another lesson learned..

    Looks like we have a double bottom on the intraday charts, but we're also around the middle of yesterday's long candle and today is consolidation. So we'll see what happens. I'll be sure to exit with gains tomorrow.

    Joe

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  12. Got room on your porch, Margo? I may want to join you tomorrow!

    I should have sold my put when I had a decent profit indicated, but didn't. I'm still optimistic with the volatility we've had that the SPY could make another retreat. After all, there's the job report Fri.!

    Joe,
    Yeah, we're up about .50 more than half of the black candle from Mon.

    Claudia,
    What did you wind up with at day's end?

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  13. Well, it looks like we were all looking at the same entry zone today on the SPY. I think that's a good thing, Dwight is teaching us well. I was traveling back from vacation today but picked up SPY puts this a.m. before I left. Hmmm, a no brainer trade, I thought? Held in there until 3:55 when the buyers returned from their martini lunch and realized they forgot to kick some of us out of our trades today. Oh well, I still made another killing on APOL! This is like taking candy from a baby. Bought EOD Dec 75's yesterday @ 2.80 and sold EOD today for 5.10. It's a good feeling though. Hope everyone had a great holiday and hope to see you tomorrow on VC.

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  14. Awesome trade Gary! That was a great seeing a bounce coming today and then playing it with APOL. Wish I would have done that!

    By the way, what's everyone seeing for tomorrow? For me a move above 8500 is call territory and were going to 8600 and above that the next resistance level is 8900. A move below 8300 and time to play puts heading to the lows of today and the same scenario as we were in before market open this morning.

    Joe

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